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Despite sluggishness in the broader markets, Rivian (RIVN) stock has seen some traction and has managed to recoup its 2025 losses, with shares up more than 6% over the last month. While this is not particularly exciting performance, in the context of greater electric vehicle stock weakness, it is worth noting. Tesla (TSLA), for instance, has lost almost a third of its market cap this year and is down 4% over the past month. Lucid Group (LCID) has is down roughly 20% in the year to date.
Plus, the trend of EV bankruptcies has continued into 2025, with Nikola (NKLAQ) being the latest to file for bankruptcy protections.
That the U.S. EV market is going through turmoil, and Tesla is not immune. The company posted its first annual shipment decline last year. While the company is optimistic about growing its deliveries in 2025, it looks a fairly tough task. Along with the slowdown in the U.S. EV market, Tesla is also facing a backlash over CEO Elon Musk’s politics.
Other EV Makers Might Gain at Tesla’s Cost
Notably, even Rivian forecast a small decline in its 2025 deliveries which sent its stock south following the Q4 2024 earnings release. Meanwhile, some believe that Tesla’s troubles could be a blessing for other EV players. According to Lucid’s interim CEO Marc Winterhoff, "We see a clear uptick of interest in Lucid from Tesla buyers, because they’re looking for another option.”
Jessica Caldwell, head of insights for Edmunds also echoes similar views and said, “These shifts in Tesla consumer sentiment could create an opportunity for legacy automakers and EV startups to gain ground.” She added, “As Tesla brand loyalty and interest wavers, those offering competitive pricing, new technology, or simply less controversy could capture defecting Tesla owners and first-time EV buyers.”
However, for now, there are no signs of Rivian benefiting from “boycott Tesla” calls. Rivian reported a 36% year-over-year fall in its Q1 deliveries, although the number was ahead of analyst estimates. Tesla saw its Q1 deliveries plummet 13% and shipments missed analysts’ toned-down estimates.
As I have noted previously, Lucid and Rivian look like two credible players in the startup EV space. While the EV industry remains challenged and no near-term respite is in sight, both companies have strong balance sheets, the backing of strategic investors, and above all else, compelling product propositions to survive the current EV industry slump.
RIVN Stock Forecast
Analyst sentiment toward Rivian has soured over the last few months. After Rivian’s Q4 2024 earnings in February, Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded the stock from “Overweight” to “Neutral” while raising the target price from $13 to $15. While the brokerage was impressed by Rivian’s first-ever gross profit in Q4, analysts weren’t impressed by the 2025 delivery guidance.
Last month, Piper Sandler also downgraded RIVN from “Overweight” to “Neutral” while slashing the target price from $19 to $13 as it does not see many catalysts for the stock this year.
Should You Buy Rivian Stock?
To be sure, concerns about Rivian are not unfounded. The company forecasting a 2025 delivery decline was a dampener and there aren’t any short-term growth drivers.
However, I believe Rivian remains a formidable player in the EV industry that might consolidate further as more companies exit the market. While Rivian’s growth story is not looking rosy in the short term, the company still holds long-term promise. Rivian is set to deliver its midsize R2 SUV in the first half of 2026 which would help it expand its target market beyond premium vehicles.
The company has also spun out its micromobility business into a new company named Also, which will help it focus on the current and upcoming portfolio. The micromobility business has anyway been challenged and saw a spate of bankruptcies as companies struggled to come up with viable business models.
Finally, while these are still early days and it would be immature to draw definitive conclusions, a lot of potential EV buyers who are not buying Tesla cars now might pivot to names like Rivian and Lucid, which are uncontroversial brands. Given the relatively small scale of Rivian and Lucid, even pulling some volumes from Tesla would help propel their deliveries.
