A year ago, Rivian reported a quarterly loss of $1.36 per share and that it was laying off 10% of its workforce. This prompted Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk to claim on X that Rivian could go bankrupt in around six quarters.
However, a year later and Rivian is still alive and investors await the EV start-up's fourth-quarter earnings report late Thursday, with eyes on whether the company will hit its target of positive gross profit per vehicle delivered.
Rivian has had an interesting 12 months since Musk claimed it could be heading toward bankruptcy. There remain two more quarters in Musk's Rivian prophecy to see if it will come true.
"Maybe that trajectory will change, but so far it hasn't," Musk wrote on X last February. At the time, the Tesla chief added that Rivian needs to "cut costs massively and the exec team needs to live in the factory or they will die."
In the intervening months since this statement, Rivian finalized a $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen as well as a loan for up to $6.6 billion from the U.S. Department of Energy.
Rivian also ended the third quarter with $6.739 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. This includes $1 billion of an unsecured convertible note issued to Volkswagen. At the end of Q2, Rivian had $7.867 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.
While Rivian after securing much needed cash in 2024 — even as turning a profit remains years away — appears to be proving Musk's prophecy wrong, other EV startups have not been as fortunate.
Nikola filed for bankruptcy on Wednesday, following startup Canoo in January. Fisker Automotive filed for bankruptcy in June 2024 after failing to secure investments from Nissan or other auto companies. Lordstown Motors also went bankrupt and is now known as Nu Ride.
Fourth-Quarter Earnings
Analysts expect Rivian to post a loss of 68 cents per share vs. a loss of $1.36 a year earlier. Sales are seen increasing 6% to $1.4 billion, according to FactSet. However, the positive gross profit per vehicle target is what investors will be looking for.
Rivian lost around $39,130 per vehicle in Q3, up from $32,700 per vehicle in the second quarter. In Q1, Rivian lost more than $38,700 per vehicle delivered.
Rivian has repeatedly stated gross profit per vehicle as the goal for the year. The company on Nov. 7 said it remained "on track" for positive gross profit per vehicle by the fourth quarter.
The startup has repeatedly stated its path to gross profit per unit delivered is primarily by reducing material costs, along with regulatory credits and other efforts.
In early January, Rivian reported Q4 vehicle deliveries came in above forecasts, hitting its 2024 delivery target number. The EV startup delivered 14,183 vehicles in Q4 and produced 12,727 units at its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois. A year ago, Rivian delivered 13,972 vehicles while producing 17,541 units.
For the full year, Rivian produced 49,476 vehicles and delivered 51,579, in line with its goal of 50,500 to 52,000 deliveries. Rivian previously forecast 2024 production of 47,000 to 49,000 units.
The 2024 deliveries represent low single-digit growth compared to 2023 when Rivian produced 57,232 vehicles and delivered 50,122 units.
Rivian also said in early January that a component shortage the company reported in October is "no longer a constraint" on production.
Rivian Stock
RIVN stock fell 3.8% to 13.89 in Wednesday's stock market action. The stock entered Wednesday trade up more than 13% in February propelling it back above its 50-day line.
The stock fell 43% in 2024 and is about 80% below its IPO price of $78. Rivian stock is currently above its 200-day moving average and has reclaimed its 50-day line as of Feb. 14.
Rivian stock is in a cup-with-handle base with a traditional 16.65 buy point, the high from Jan. 3, according to MarketSurge analysis. The base dates back to July 2024 and the bulk of it has formed underneath the 200-day moving average and 50-day line, which can be a warning sign.
RIVN shares have dropped 14% since hitting 16.65.
Rivian's chief executive also repeatedly sold shares of RIVN in 2024, according to SEC filings.
Rivian stock has a 59 Composite Rating out of 99. Additionally, the stock has an 88 Relative Strength Rating and its EPS Rating is 20 out of 99.
Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
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