The risk of a huge asteroid hitting Earth has dropped after Nasa reported its highest-ever impact probability for an object of its size.
Space rock 2024 YR4, estimated to be 130 to 300 feet wide (40 to 100 metres), now has a 1.5% chance of colliding with Earth in December 2032, the agency said.
On Tuesday, Nasa put the impact probability at 3.1%, the highest ever recorded for an object of its size.
New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 helped us update its chance of impact in 2032. The current probability is 1.5%.
— NASA (@NASA) February 20, 2025
Our understanding of the asteroid's path improves with every observation. We'll keep you posted. https://t.co/LuRwg1eaCv pic.twitter.com/SfZIxflB95
It is too soon to know where it might land if it did hit Earth.
However, the UK is not within the current predicted “impact risk corridor”, which is the area where the asteroid could land, according to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN).
This corridor stretches across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, the IAWN said.
If the asteroid hits it could cause “severe blast damage” as far as 50 km (31 miles) from the impact site, scientists say.
Experts expect the probability of collision will change as more observations are made.
There is a 0.8% chance the asteroid will impact the moon, Nasa said.
The asteroid was first spotted in December by a telescope in Chile.
