Rishi Sunak is visiting Northern Ireland amid growing speculation that a deal between the UK and EU to end the long-running dispute over the post-Brexit protocol is imminent.
The prime minister was set to arrive on Thursday night for “engagement” talks with political parties on the protocol alongside his Northern Ireland secretary Chris Heaton-Harris.
Mr Sunak is also expected to meet European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen this weekend, with reports that the two sides are preparing to announce an agreement to ease protocol checks as early as next week.
However, a senior DUP figure has warned that a failure to end the complete imposition of EU law in the province in any new deal will ensure Stormont’s powersharing impasse continues.
Nigel Dodds insisted his party would maintain its block on devolution if an agreement falls short of the measures contained in the Tory government’s own stalled draft legislation to unilaterally rip up the deal.
“Whilst talks with the EU are ongoing, ministers continue to engage with relevant stakeholders to ensure any solution fixes the practical problems on the ground,” a No 10 spokeswoman said on tonight’s talks.
“The prime minister and secretary of state for Northern Ireland are travelling to Northern Ireland this evening to speak to political parties as part of this engagement process.”
A technical agreement to ease customs and food and animal health checks is thought to be all but done, based on British proposals for a “green” lane between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
And UK negotiators have reportedly conceded that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) will remain the ultimate arbiter of any protocol disputes – though there will be a stronger role for Northern Irish courts.
While Tory moderates have urged Mr Sunak to get the deal done, hardline Tory Brexiteers in the European Research Group (ERG) are angry about the ongoing role for European judges.
Tory MP David Jones, ERG deputy chair, told The Independent: “If this is the basis of a deal then it will not work. We need to get rid of the protocol altogether … Any deal would be completely futile and embarrassing if it’s unacceptable to the unionist community.”
The DUP is currently blocking the functioning of the devolved institutions in Belfast in protest at the protocol. In 2021, the DUP set out seven tests by which it will judge changes to the protocol, but is widely expected to reject a compromise deal.
In an interview with Italian newspaper La Repubblica, Lord Dodds said the fundamental issue was the “imposition of the EU law on Northern Ireland … If you deal with that, then you deal with the [ECJ] court situation”.
The DUP peer criticised the Sunak government’s decision to pause progress on the Protocol Bill – introduced by then-foreign secretary Liz Truss under the Boris Johnson government- while negotiations with the EU continue.
“We’re very, very not just disappointed, but angry at the fact that the government has stalled the Protocol Bill, which clearly they – Sunak, Truss and Johnson – all said it was British government policy.”
He added: “If Sunak doesn’t deliver what was promised in terms of the Protocol Bill … he will be deciding to cause the continuation of the impasse in Northern Ireland. It’s his choice, it’s not a question of trust in them. We just want them to fulfil the pledges they made.”
Nationalist MP Claire Hanna from the SDLP said it looked like a deal on the protocol was “imminent”, adding: “I think it’s positive, it’s less friction and maintaining of dual market access, so I think that’s a win for this region,” she said.
Ms Hanna told BBC Radio Ulster that the DUP should be challenged to explain the consequences would be if EU law was removed in Northern Ireland.
She added: “I think there are people in the DUP who know they are on a hiding to nothing if they keep going further down this dark alley. We know this is hard, compromise is hard, none of the options are particularly brilliant, but just saying ‘no’ is no longer an option.”
Despite the ongoing impasses in Northern Ireland, with deadline for a new election put back a full year earlier this week, Mr Sunak is not expected to face major difficulties at Westminster.
It remains unclear whether a vote in the Commons on any deal with the EU will be necessary. But Sir Keir Labour has signalled Labour will back a compromise, so he should avoid embarrassment, even if there is a major Tory rebellion.
Simon Hoare, Tory chair of the Norther Ireland affairs select committee, told The Independent this week that a deal would be “the return of grown-ups doing politics in a sensible way”, adding: “Let’s not mess around – let’s just get the bloody thing sorted and done.”
