In a sign of how febrile the atmosphere in Westminster is just now, there were wild rumours flying around on Friday that Rishi Sunak was planning to finally call an election straight after the weekend.
The fact that this particular theory appears to have begun with Labour party speculation that the prime minister could announce a date to put an end to questions over his own leadership does not appear to have slowed down its spread.
With the local elections on Thursday looking as if they could end disastrously for the Conservatives, No 10 has been anxiously trying to get a firm grip on the narrative before polling day.
Yet the likelihood of Sunak firing the starting gun on a general election campaign on Monday, which would mean voters going to the ballot box in early June, has been met with bemusement in Tory circles.
David Davis, a former cabinet minister, said the government would be “off its head” to call an election now when it was firmly 20 points behind Labour in the polls.
“It’s going to go distant, sometime in November, maybe even December, to allow some of the economic improvements to come through,” he said. “So no, it would be a suicidal thing to do in political terms.”
Downing Street insiders laughed off the rumour, while Sunak spent the day visiting apprentices in a factory in Stevenage before heading to Chequers, his grace-and-favour country residence, for the weekend.
Despite months of often frenzied conjecture over his leadership, and the prospect of a terrible set of local election results for the Tories, the prime minister’s aides say he is feeling more secure.
Over the last week he has announced plans to overhaul the welfare system, got his Rwanda deportation bill through parliament and committed to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence by the end of the decade.
“We know that not everybody in the party is happy but hopefully they will see that Rishi is delivering on important issues and they need to stick with him – and his plan,” said one No 10 insider.
For his part, Sunak appeared more relaxed – and less tetchy – than he has done in recent times while on a two-day visit to Poland and Germany to announce his defence plans this week.
Speaking to reporters on the plane, he repeated his mantra that the election is likely to be in the second half of the year, which most of his MPs interpret as meaning November (although could technically mean July).
Yet No 10 advisers remain nervous about the fallout from the local elections, where the Tories are projected to lose half of their council seats up for election, while their two most high-profile regional mayors – Andy Street in the West Midlands and Ben Houchen in Tees Valley – face tough battles.
If either of them lose, some Tory insiders fear that in the days after 2 May Sunak could face a confidence vote, with just 52 Tory MPs needing to feel despondent enough about the state of their party to trigger one.
Theresa May’s and Boris Johnson’s experiences of such confidence votes suggests that even prime ministers who win them see their authority drain away.
MPs have noted that Sunak has, somewhat unusually, spent two weekends in a row at Chequers, where he and his team could strategise in private without being spotted by the media or suspicious MPs.
Would-be successors are already readying themselves. “All of those who think they’re going to be contenders for the leadership are actively preparing,” one former minister said. “Once people start to think the local elections could be really disastrous, they start talking up the threat to Rishi. The danger is it starts to gain momentum, so everybody prepares for a contest – and then it becomes more likely.”
Tory insiders say Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, is among those “on manoeuvres”. She has spoken at dozens of Tory grassroots associations in the past few months in what has been perceived to be part of her preparations for a potential leadership campaign.
One Tory insider said some of Mordaunt’s allies were discussing an economy-centred pitch she could make in a leadership campaign if Sunak were to be ousted. One of her allies has told friends there were 70 Tory MPs prepared to back her should she run for leader in those circumstances.
Tory MPs believe that Mordaunt – unlike her putative rivals for the party crown Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and Grant Shapps – could struggle to hang on to her Portsmouth North seat, despite her 15,780 majority, and so would prefer a leadership contest this side of the general election.
Another Tory insider allied to Downing Street said Mordaunt was now being referred to among some MPs as “Poison Pen” because of the perception that she was on actively preparing for a contest in the event Sunak falls.
Allies of Mordaunt have denied she was preparing for a campaign or trying to take advantage of Sunak’s weak position, insisting she was getting on with her job.
One said: “This is tedious stuff. If these nameless, faceless briefers really don’t have anything better to do, perhaps they might consider helping get the vote out in the local, mayoral and [police and crime commissioner] elections. I’m pretty sure the PM would welcome that, too.”
Badenoch, seen as the frontrunner thanks to her popularity with the Tory grassroots, raised eyebrows when she declared in advance of a vote on Sunak’s smoking ban this month that she could not support it. It was seen as attempt to burnish her libertarian credentials.
Shapps has been accused by one former minister of being “particularly blatant” over his ambitions, inviting Tory MPs to briefings on defence issues and following up with them directly if he did not hear back. “There’s deniability in the cover,” they added.
A source close to him claimed that he was simply keen to keep colleagues abreast of developments. “There is a lot happening in the world and MPs want to be kept updated,” they said. “It’s perfectly reasonable for him to be in contact with and meet colleagues who have an interest in the area.”
However, many MPs think the idea of changing leaders could be catastrophically damaging for the party. A senior Tory MP who supported Mordaunt in 2022 said that if she stood for the leadership now, it would be a “hara-kiri run”.
“Any new leader would have to immediately call a general election because the pressure would be so great,” the MP said. “A general election after changing leaders again – the public would draw its own conclusions.”
