Six months ago, the Prime Minister used his first major speech of the new year to set out five pledges he said would address “the people’s priorities”, including halving inflation by the end of the year and bringing down NHS waiting lists.
Rishi Sunak, addressing an audience in Stratford in east London, called them “five foundations on which to build a better future for our children and grandchildren”.
Labour was quick to accuse Mr Sunak of making promises he would “struggle not to keep”, but what commitments did the Prime Minister make, and what has been achieved six months on?
1. Inflation
Mr Sunak said that the Government will “halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and give people financial security”.
Soaring inflation, in part driven by the war in Ukraine, has been among the biggest challenges for the Government and the rising cost of living has caused misery for millions of households.
The Prime Minister, who was chancellor under Boris Johnson, told reporters that the halving of inflation, which was at 10.7 per cent, according to the Consumer Prices Index, would be part of a “path to restoring inflation back to where it belongs, which is the 2 per cent inflation target that we set the Bank of England”.
Hopes had already begun growing that the worst inflation had now passed, with rates forecasted to ease back sharply throughout 2023.
Economists said that inflation would steadily fall back over 2023, and halve as the Prime Minister hopes by the end of the year.
But many have attributed that to the impact of the predicted recession in the UK, as well as drops in the price of oil and some food ingredients.
What has been achieved on inflation so far?
So what has been achieved so far? The latest figures show that inflation remained at 8.7 per cent in May, with the figure not expected to reduce by much in June. Meanwhile, inflation in the Eurozone dipped to 5.1 per cent in June.
2. Growing the economy
Mr Sunak promised to “grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country”.
The UK’s sluggish growth rates have been one of the key talking points for politicians in recent months and were a major preoccupation of Mr Sunak’s short-lived predecessor Liz Truss.
Growing the economy, with better-paid jobs across the UK, was also a central preoccupation of Boris Johnson’s levelling-up agenda and Mr Sunak re-iterated that promise on Wednesday as he said that he would deliver “greater investment in local areas, to boost growth, create jobs”.
But in the short term, the economy faces serious challenges.
The Office for Budget Responsibility in November predicted that the economy would contract by 1.4 per cent in 2023, while unemployment could also rise by more than 500,000.
Labour pointed out that “the UK is one of the only advanced economies to not grow this year, so we could hardly do worse than we were”.
What has been achieved on the economy so far?
As of June, the unemployment rate had dipped to 3.8 per cent. It was expected to rise to 4 per cent, but figures show 250,000 more people were in work.
3. National debt falling
In his speech, the Prime Minister said that the Government would ensure that the UK’s “national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services”.
The language chimes with the former chancellor’s reputation for fiscal rectitude, but the promise is not new.
Much of the Chancellor’s autumn statement was focused on putting UK finances back on a more sustainable footing, with Jeremy Hunt repeatedly warning that difficult decisions were needed to balance the books.
Mr Sunak admitted as much as he took questions from reporters, as he said: “We already have got plans in place to make sure that debt does fall in the medium term”.
“The key is sticking to those and making sure that we have the discipline to do so because that’s not always easy, but it’s the right thing to do to secure the future of public services and indeed to combat inflation.”
Has national debt fallen?
The short answer is no, and the IMF has predicted that it won’t any time soon either. In June, government debt rose above 100% of GDP for the first time since 1961. In addition, as of April borrowing hit £25.6 billion, which is nearly £12 billion more than for the same month last year.
4. Falling NHS waiting lists
With the NHS under severe pressure and senior medics offering increasingly stark warnings about the state of the health service, the Prime Minister promised that “NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly”.
The Government acknowledged that waiting lists are a major issue, even as Downing Street stopped short of calling some of the pressures experienced earlier this year a full-blown crisis.
Blame has largely fallen on Covid-19 and the impact of the flu cases and Strep A, even as medics point to longstanding issues with the health service.
“Covid has imposed massive new pressures and people are waiting too long for the care they need,” Mr Sunak said.
“We’re fixing that, but we need to do more.”
The NHS in England has previously estimated that the waiting list would be reduced by around March 2024.
While the renewed promise was welcomed earlier this year many pointed out that the speech lacked a clear plan for achieving it.
NHS Providers’ director of communications Adam Brimelow said: “The Prime Minister’s pledge to cut waiting lists so that people get the care they need more quickly is an ambition that everyone in the NHS shares.
“But his speech was short on detail about how this will be achieved.”
Have NHS waiting lists fallen?
As of April, the number of people in England waiting to start hospital treatment had risen to a new high. However, figures show that times for the longest waits are improving.
5. Illegal migration
The Prime Minister has spoken at length before about illegal migration and Channel crossings, which he has repeatedly described as among his top priorities.
“We will pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed,” he said.
In June, the Prime Minister said the number of people making the journey across the Channel was down by around 20 per cent since last year but acknowledged the Government has “a long way still to go”.
What’s the latest with the illegal migration bill?
As of June, the Government has been warned that the Illegal Migration Bill breaches a “number of the UK’s human rights obligations.”
Chairwoman Joanna Cherry MP warned that the Government’s proposals could increase the number of people being trafficked.
The bill has been passed by the Commons but is being criticised in the House of Lords.
