Rishi Sunak has unveiled five ‘promises’ to the British people as part of a New Year bid to reboot the catastrophe-hit government.
With the NHS in meltdown and strikes crippling public infrastructure, the millionaire PM said his speech would “deliver peace of mind” adding: “This government will always reflect the people’s priorities”.
Yet only two of his five pledges are for this year, and he could be booted from office shortly afterwards.
His promises include an eyebrow-raising pledge to “halve inflation this year” - despite repeatedly claiming inflation is due to war in Ukraine and global tension, not his government.
He also promised “NHS waiting lists will fall”, as ambulances wait hours outside A&E. And he claimed there was a "lot of misinformation" out there about strikes, with more information on the government's plan - which could include minimum service levels - "in the coming days".
But a lot of it is vague. The speech is a bid to take on critics - including in the Tory party - who say they don’t know what Rishi Sunak stands for.
He had privately told MPs he was focusing on small boats, the economy and the NHS - and this takes that message a bit further.
It goes on top of his “ambition” to ensure all children learn maths until age 18, which may only be achieved in the next Parliament.
He also veered off into saying whatever your family looks like it doesn't matter, "as long as the common bond is love". He vowed to give families what they need - while also reportedly rowing back on Liz Truss's plans to improve childcare.
He said: “No tricks… no ambiguity… we’re either delivering for you or we’re not. We will rebuild trust in politics through action, or not at all. So, I ask you to judge us on the effort we put in and the results we achieve.”
But despite his words there are plenty of holes still left in the plan - and plenty of ambiguous loopholes he could jump through if it goes wrong.
Here’s a snap analysis.
Promise 1: ‘We will halve inflation this year’
“We will halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and give people financial security,” the PM said.
There are two very notable things about this.
First, inflation was already expected to drop this year without Rishi Sunak actually doing anything.
The Office for Budget Responsibility said in November that CPI was due to average 9.1% over 2022 and 7.4% over 2023. If you’re talking about the financial year (April to April), then the drop will be sharper.
Secondly and more importantly, this is Rishi Sunak suddenly taking personal responsibility for the inflation crisis.
It’s a major change of stance, after he spent months insisting global factors like the war in Ukraine are to blame for skyrocketing prices.
He could be accused of avoiding blame for inflation when it goes up, but trying to claim credit when it goes down.
It’s also a huge political gamble, because if inflation doesn’t fall by as much as he hopes, his critics will say he’s directly responsible.
Promise 2: ‘We will grow the economy’
“We will grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country,” the Prime Minister said.
This is an echo of Liz Truss’s push for “growth” - but with none of the controversial, unfunded tax cuts she was using to achieve it. Instead, he said “as soon as we can, the government will reduce the burden of taxation on working people” - with no date.
It’s also an echo of Boris Johnson’s attempts to “level up” jobs and opportunities in different parts of the UK. He said: "The change we need is to do away with the idea that is it inevitable that some communities and places can never and will never get better."
But it’s also vague. Unlike Liz Truss’s 2.5%, Rishi Sunak doesn’t say how much he’ll ‘grow the economy’. Admittedly, some forecasts say just keeping it out of recession this year will be a big achievement.
He also doesn’t say how much ‘better-paid’ jobs will be. Wages are going up by 6.9% in the private sector and 2.7% in the public sector but that’s a real-terms cut, and he’s refusing to give bigger wage rises to nurses.
Promise 3: ‘National debt falling’
“We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services,” the PM said.
Again, this is vague - they key question will be when it starts falling.
Under his own Autumn Statement, public sector net debt was forecast to keep rising from 90% of GDP this year to 96% in 2023/24 and 97.6% in 2026/27.
It would only start falling after that. The national debt is already far higher than it was in the wake of the 2008 crash. Is the PM speeding up the plan?
Promise 4: ‘NHS waiting lists will fall’
"People are understandably anxious when they see ambulances queuing outside hospitals," the PM said.
"You should know we're taking urgent action, increasing bed capacity by 7,000 more hospital beds, and more people cared at home."
He added: “NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly."
But how much will they fall? And when? And how?
The waiting list for hospital treatment was on a steady increase over the last decade, and skyrocketed since the Covid pandemic.
It rose to a record of 7 million in September 2022. The 18-week treatment target has not been met since 2016. Yet No10 on Tuesday insisted the NHS has the funds it needs.
He also promised an NHS where "patients are in control" and said we should be "comfortable with the NHS using more independent capacity, if that's what it takes to get patients quicker and better care".
The PM said that would "allow them to make more informed choices and hold services to account".
This blue sky vision could be pretty jarring for the Nan, 92, who said she "wanted to die" during a 33-hour corridor wait.
Promise 5: ‘We will pass new laws to stop small boats’
“We will pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed,” the PM said.
Firstly, this is a continuation of the PM’s plans that he has already announced.
But secondly, the wording is careful - he does not say that he’s going to stop all the small boats crossing the Channel. Because that, many argue, is not possible.
More than 45,000 people are believed to have crossed the Channel in small boats in 2022, a rise of more than 17,000 on 2021.
