A member of the House’s ultra-liberal “squad” and a senator who’s older than President Joe Biden go before Democratic primary voters on Tuesday, but Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders face none of the headwinds that ousted Missouri Rep. Cori Bush earlier this week and forced Biden to drop his reelection bid last month.
The biggest battles on tap Tuesday may be in Wisconsin, where there’s an expensive Republican battle to replace a House member who resigned in April, and a Democratic fight to take on freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Badger State voters will also set the nominees in one of the year’s top Senate races, but the likely winners have been running against each other for months.
Connecticut also has primaries Tuesday, but none of the members of the all-Democratic delegation face challenges from within the party.
Here’s a look at what’s up in the four states holding congressional primaries on Tuesday:
Wisconsin
Senate: Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is expected to face businessman Eric Hovde in November, and outside groups have already spent $25 million on the race.
But Hovde first needs to get past two nominal challengers in the Republican primary on Tuesday: Charles Barman, a farmer and Santa Claus impersonator, and Rejani Raveendran, the chair of the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point College Republicans.
The expected battle between Baldwin and Hovde, which Inside Elections rates as Lean Democratic, is set to be one of the top Senate races nationwide in the fall. While Baldwin won reelection by 11 percentage points in 2018, both parties expect the race to be much closer this year, when the state will also be a battleground in the presidential race.
Baldwin has built up a war chest and had $6.3 million on hand as of July 24. Hovde, a wealthy bank CEO, had $3.1 million on hand and has loaned his campaign $13 million so far. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee launched its first independent expenditure ad in the state this week calling Hovde a California banker who “wants to buy a Senate seat.” Republicans say it’s time for the state to have new representation and argue Baldwin is a career politician.
A Marquette University Law School poll released this week found Baldwin is leading Hovde, 53 percent to 46 percent among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin led Hovde, 52 percent to 47 percent.
1st District: GOP Rep. Bryan Steil and Democratic challenger Peter Barca are both unopposed in their respective primaries ahead of a matchup that could be competitive in November.
Barca previously served in Congress during President Bill Clinton’s administration. He won a special election after the 1st District’s longtime congressman was tapped for Clinton’s Cabinet, but lost a 1994 race for a full term. He went on to serve in the Wisconsin state Assembly, eventually becoming minority leader. He also worked as Wisconsin’s secretary of revenue.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee designated Barca as a “Red to Blue” candidate.
Steil, the chair of the House Administration Committee, has a major cash advantage as he seeks his fourth term in the House. He had $4.7 million on hand as of July 24, compared to Barca’s $655,000. He won his 2022 race by 8.9 percentage points.
Inside Elections rates the race as Likely Republican.
3rd District: The Democratic primary to challenge Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden includes three Democrats in a race that has become increasingly negative. Two of the candidates, state Rep. Katrina Shankland and small business owner Rebecca Cooke, have traded barbs leading up to Tuesday’s primary.
Shankland has fashioned herself as a bipartisan legislator and argued she has the experience to serve in the House. She has campaigned with Wisconsin Rep. Mark Pocan, a former chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and is also endorsed by Reps. Gwen Moore of Wisconsin, Betty McCollum of Minnesota and Eric Sorensen of Illinois.
Cooke, who was appointed by Gov. Tony Evers to the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation Board, has been the stronger fundraiser. She had $591,000 on hand as of July 24 compared to Shankland’s $190,000. She’s backed by groups including the Blue Dog PAC and the New Democratic Coalition Action Fund, which are both tied to groups of moderate Democrats in the House. She’s been endorsed by Reps. Brad Schneider of Illinois, Jared Golden of Maine, Mike Thompson and Raul Ruiz of California, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington and Sharice Davids of Kansas.
Shankland criticized Cooke for “begging publicly on her campaign website for her dark money special interest group allies to launch false attacks on my record.” In a July 25 memo on Cooke’s website, her campaign said that “Democratic Primary Voters who watch streaming and YouTube need to see and hear in a factual manner” about certain votes Shankland took in the state Assembly.
WelcomePAC, a group which works to elect center-left Democrats, spent $206,000 supporting Cooke’s campaign. A group called New Democrat Majority spent $151,000 opposing Shankland’s campaign. Leaders We Deserve, a group which focuses on electing younger candidates to Congress, spent $194,000 supporting Shankland.
Democrat Eric Wilson is also on the ballot. He was endorsed by California Rep. Ro Khanna and had $29,000 on hand as of July 24.
Van Orden flipped the seat after Democratic Rep. Ron Kind retired in 2022. Now, Democrats are hoping to win it back and have labeled Van Orden as an “extremist.” He had $2.5 million on hand as of July 24.
Outside groups have already begun targeting him and supporting him. WelcomePAC spent $32,000 opposing his campaign, while Law Enforcement for a Safer America PAC spent $12,000 supporting him.
Inside Elections rates the race as Likely Republican.
8th District: Republican voters in the 8th District are voting twice Tuesday for nominees to complete former Rep. Mike Gallagher’s unfinished term, as well as to serve a full term starting in January. The same three candidates are running in both races.
State Sen. Andre Jacque, former state Sen. Roger Roth and Tony Wied, a former gas station owner, are seeking to succeed Gallagher, who resigned in April. Trump endorsed Wied, whose campaign ran an ad featuring Trump calling Roth “RINO Roger” and saying he should “drop out of the race immediately.”
But Roth’s allies have spent heavily to try and boost him. The Speak Free or Die PAC spent $1 million supporting Roth and opposing Wied and Jacque, while the Elect Principled Veterans Fund spent $977,000 supporting Roth.
Wied, who put $500,000 of his own money into the campaign in May, added another $145,000 on Aug. 2. On July 24, the closing date of the last full report, he disclosed having $228,000 while Roth had $412,000 and Jacque had $90,000.
The winner will face Democrat Kristin Lyerly, an obstetrician who is unopposed in the Democratic primary for both races. Lyerly has focused on reproductive rights in her campaign, which she hopes will help make the race competitive. She was endorsed by Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s Fight Like Hell PAC. She had $313,000 on hand as of July 24.
Still, the Republican will be favored in November in a district that would have voted for Trump by 16 points in 2020, according to Inside Elections, which rates the race as Solid Republican.
Minnesota
2nd District: Two Republicans are on the ballot Tuesday in a primary to challenge Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, but only one is still officially running for the seat.
The GOP primary ballot still includes Tayler Rahm, who dropped out of the race last month to serve as a senior adviser to former President Donald Trump’s campaign. Delegates at the district’s Republican convention endorsed Rahm earlier this year over rival Joe Teirab, and some voters in the district appear to still plan to support him.
But Teirab, a former assistant U.S. attorney, has the backing of the National Republican Congressional Committee as part of its “Young Guns” program for promising candidates in competitive districts. Trump also endorsed him, which Teirab has been touting ahead of the election.
Teirab had outraised Rahm and had $536,000 on hand as of July 24. Craig has been a GOP target since she was elected in 2018 and her 2022 race drew significant outside spending. She had $4.1 million on hand as of July 24.
Inside Elections rates the race as Lean Democratic.
3rd District: Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips passed on another House run in favor of an ill-fated challenge to Biden for the presidential nomination, which ended after Super Tuesday.
Kelly Morrison, a former member of the Minnesota state Senate, is running unopposed in the Democratic primary. On the Republican side, Tad Jude, a former member of the state House of Representatives and state Senate and a former Minnesota District Court judge, is also unopposed.
Inside Elections rates the race as Solid Democratic.
5th District: Two members of the so-called “Squad” have lost their primary races in the last two months. Omar now faces her own primary challenge, but under different dynamics than Reps. Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush.
Omar faces a primary challenge from Don Samuels, the former Minneapolis City Council member she narrowly defeated in a primary two years ago. Samuels has argued that Omar is too divisive for the district and criticized her for voting against a House-passed infrastructure bill, a vote that was also raised in attack ads against Bush.
Unlike Bush, however, Omar has significantly outraised and outspent her challenger and outside groups have been much less involved in her race.
Make a Difference MN spent $60,000 boosting Samuels and opposing Omar. The Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, TakeAction MN Federal Fund, National Nurses United for Patient Protection and Working Families Party PAC spent a combined $517,000 supporting Omar.
Omar campaigned last weekend with Sanders, I-Vt., a leader of the Democrats’ progressive wing.
Republican Dalia Al-Aqidi is unopposed in her primary. The winner of the Democratic primary will be heavily favored in November. Inside Elections rates the race as Solid Democratic.
Vermont
Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, is running for a fourth term in the Senate and has his own primary on Tuesday. But the 82-year old doesn’t face a primary challenger, and neither does his Republican opponent, Gerald Malloy.
Rep. Becca Balint is also unopposed in the Democratic primary as she seeks a second term as the state’s only House member. She’s set to face Republican Mark Coester, who is unopposed in his primary, in November.
Both incumbents’ races are rated Solid Democratic.
Connecticut
Voters in the Nutmeg State haven’t elected a Republican to Congress since 2006, but that hasn’t dissuaded several GOP contenders from trying this year. The marquee matchup is in the 5th District, where Republican George Logan is running against three-term Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes. Logan came within a percentage point of defeating Hayes two years ago and is making an earlier push this time. Hayes and Logan do not face primaries, and their race in November is rated Lean Democratic by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.
In the 4th District, two Republicans — physician Michael Goldstein and tea party activist Bob MacGuffie — are vying for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Jim Himes. Goldstein has raised $109,000 through July 24 — including a $75,000 personal loan — and MacGuffie has brought in $97,000. Himes reported raising $1.6 million on June 30, and because of funds left from prior campaigns had $2.3 million on hand.
The Republican primary to pick a challenger to Sen. Chris Murphy pits Beacon Falls First Selectman Gerry Smith against Matt Corey, a Navy veteran who owns a pub in East Hartford. Neither Smith nor Corey have raised more than $65,000 through July 24; Murphy has brought in $13.4 million.
Daniela Altimari contributed to this report.
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