Week 8 kept the Scumbag System’s ™ winning streak alive. Just barely.
Jumping on the Buffalo Bills early at -10 resulted in a Sunday night push when Josh Allen briefly forgot how to play football in a moment where he could have erased all hope of a Green Bay Packers comeback. Instead, he left that duty to Mason Crosby, who came through to miss a late 55-yard field goal and allow the Bills to walk to the locker room with a 27-17 win.
Things didn’t go as smoothly with the gameday bets our Ocean State handicapper actually made. Garbage time was absolutely brutal to our Scumbag friend, making it two straight weeks with profitable locks and creating some behind the scenes drama (that he is in no way shape or form compelled to share with us, but does anyway. I think it’s therapeutic. Who doesn’t like throwing a good “bad beat” story into the universe?).
Backdoor covers in the NFL can make or break your weekend. I’ve been on both sides of them. This week was one of the worst experiences that I’ve ever had in the NFL. I was on the wrong end of four garbage time, meaningless scores turning my betting tickets from stacks of hundred dollar bills to coasters for the beers that I then had to consume to try and dull the pain.
I live bet the Jacksonville Jaguars on three different occasions in the early game. All I needed was a three-point win to cash all three. Nope, thanks a lot Trevor.
I live bet the Tennessee Titans two different times and just needed a 14-point win to cash both. Then Dameon Pierce catches a touchdown pass with 17 seconds left. Light those tickets on fire.
New England Patriots alternate line -9.5 was one of my favorite plays of the day paying out at +215. They had the New York Jets pinned deep and all they had to do was play a little bit of defense. Nope. 60 yard play followed by a 3rd down TD catch. Light that eight-unit winner on fire.
Finally, the Packers. Oh my god was I right about this team. They suck.
However, Buffalo doesn’t really care if they win by 10, 20 or 30. Once they are up a few points, they knew they were in the driver’s seat against that inept offense. That one really stung. Hopefully you got -10 or better and didn’t lay the alt line -16.5 or the actual -10.5 [Ed. note: ooof]
The good news is your official locks are in good hands and still hitting at a plus-.600 rate. Here’s what we’ve got for Week 9.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets UNDER 47.5 points
This line doesn’t make much sense to me. Buffalo has a good defense and has seemed to take the foot off the gas in a lot of games with a big lead. My only concern here is Zach Wilson handing the ball over too much and that resulting in easy points for Buffalo. I can see a 30-13 kind of game here which differs from the Vegas projection of an apparent shootout in the Meadowlands [Ed. note: the total is literally only 1.5 points more than that, but go off I guess].
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Los Angeles Rams +3 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I made my lines for the week and projected that the Rams would be a sizable road favorite. I was thinking if they opened up as four-point favorites, the Tampa backers would eventually move the line closer to a FG and I would maybe wait for LA -3 or maybe even -2.5. In fact, I would have thrown my paycheck down if you could have told me I could get -2.5.
Not only are we getting that … we’re catching a full field goal??? Do the oddsmakers not watch the games??? Tampa Bay is a train wreck. The Rams have struggled a bit, but they aren’t even close to as bad as Tampa is. I think the Rams are going into Tampa and finding their offense. They should be able to establish the run (would be great if McVay would put his ego aside and play Akers), and then let Stafford eat in play action.
The defense will get to Brady and we will see him on the ground a lot this weekend. I think the Rams can win this game by double digits in a no sweat, kick your feet up and sip a cocktail kind of game.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: Miami Dolphins -4 at the Chicago Bears
I’m doing it again! I think I’ve laid points on the road once before in this article. It did not go well [Ed. note: It was the Buccaneers vs. the Steelers. No wonder you hate Tampa].
I think Miami got the wake up call they needed. They went into the second half against Detroit down 10 and came away a winner straight up and ATS. That was the tune up they needed to get their offense going.
Chicago can’t stop anyone. Miami should go into Chicago and expose the Bears for what they are: a team in a rebuilding year. I see this one ending somewhere in the 28-10 range.
Scumbag locks last week: 2-1-1 (.625)
Scumbag locks year to date: 17-9-2 (.643)
My non-scumbag lock: Atlanta Falcons +3.5 vs. the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots -5 vs. the Indianapolis Colts
Two historically cursed franchises wage battle in Mercedes-Benz Stadium — a venue that tore down two different churches in the name of eminent domain. The Falcons have treaded water long enough to lead the NFC South thanks to a run-heavy attack. The Chargers are giving up 5.7 yards per carry. Los Angeles has also been vulnerable to big gains from tight ends (13.7 yards per catch) and Atlanta found a way to get Kyle Pitts nine targets last week. I don’t know if this game will be good, but I do expect it to be stupid and, therefore, close.
There are plenty of revenge narratives at play for the Colts vs. the Patriots — foremost Chris Ballard and Stephon Gilmore — and Indianapolis would love to run the ball all over New England’s shaky defense. But the Colts rank 32nd in the league in run efficiency and are starting a not-quite-rookie quarterback against Bill Belichick on the road. Pats it is.
I strongly considered the Jacksonville Jaguars at +2 at home vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. Then I realized there’s no outcome to this game that would surprise me. Seems like a bad sign when you’re recommending betting locks. Still, I think the Jags win thanks to being slightly less disappointing than their AFC West counterpart.
Non-Scumbag locks last week: 1-1 (.500)
Non-Scumbag locks year to date: 9-6-1 (.594)
