After a brief bump in the road, the Scumbag System ™ is back on track. Last week’s 2-1 record — only the Titans’ sudden competence could slow it down — pushed the Rhode Island Scumbag to 8-4-1 through four weeks.
That included some boring bets — rooting for the unders in a down year for many NFL offenses — and faith in an Atlanta Falcons team that managed to not only upset the Cleveland Browns but did so while completing only seven passes (and, thus, destroying the brains of anyone who took Kyle Pitts in the third round of their fantasy drafts). It was a vital bounceback for our handicapper. Now he’s putting his system up against Week 5.
In his words:
This week will test our handicapping focus and discipline. It is always tempting to splash around after a winning week. That is how casinos make a lot of their money back.
Understand this… the money you just won (if you followed this article) is yours. It isn’t “profit” or “house money.” This is your money.
Be smart and stick to the unit system. Place one unit on all of your base plays. Bump that to two or three units if you’re feeling very bullish, but don’t extend beyond that.
There are eight plays that match our systems. We can’t make eight bets in a day. We’d take on too much risk and put the likelihood of an undefeated betting day basically out of reach. We’ll have to look at the eight games and trim the fat. The two pure system plays — home underdogs in conference games — are:
- New York Jets +3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
- Arizona Cardinals +5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The divisional game unders (17-5 to the under from my rough calculation) in play are:
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans under 45
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons under 48.5
- Jets vs. Dolphins under 44.5
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears under 44
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals under 48.5
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders under 52.5
You can’t ignore 17-5 so I’m going to select 2 of these and then add in a side. I’m going to abandon the first system for two reasons. First, I’ve seen Philly play. I’m not going to bet against them until I see a valid reason. Second, I made a vow to myself that I will NOT be including the New York Jets in any more of my plays.
Alright then, we’ve got a basic menu. Let’s see what this week’s selections are.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets UNDER 46 points
We have to look at the totals and find the ones most likely to cash. I think Teddy Bridgewater is a great game manager. He will help control the ball, run some clock and keep the total down.
I’m going to take UNDER 46 NYJ/MIA
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 52.5 points
Raiders coach Josh McDaniels has a good amount of experience facing off against Patrick Mahomes and understands how to beat him. His best option? Keep Mahomes on the sideline and try to slow down that explosive offense.
Also, find a way to cover Travis Kelce. I know the blueprint exists, but it doesn’t guarantee us anything. However, 52 is a lot of points for two opponents who know each other quite well.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: New York Giants (+9.5) vs. the Green Bay Packers
My final play goes back to my weekly handicapping system. That’s when I make my own lines and then compare them to the Vegas lines.
I discovered the largest discrepancy of the season during this process. I made Green Bay a four-point favorite against the New York Giants. I couldn’t really believe my eyes when Vegas had this Packers team laying eight points.
I also made this line thinking the game was at Lambeau Field. NO. IT IS IN LONDON!!! What is going on here? Have people been watching a different Green Bay team than I have? They aren’t very good.
The Giants have played well enough to compete. They should be able to do enough to keep it close and I gladly would have bet on them getting anything above four points.
You want to double that and give me eight??? Three unit wager on NYG +8 (since pushed to +9.5).
I’m going to start my tailgating experience at Gillette Stadium with a Bloody Mary and a triple-up before I watch Dan Campbell look thoroughly confused as he gets his [expletive] kicked by a third string QB.
Scumbag locks last week: 2-1 (.667)
Scumbag locks year to date: 8-4-1 (.654)
My non-scumbag locks: The Giants +9.5, UNDER 42.5 points vs. the Packers and the Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
I low-key really like that Giants pick. The Packers have a bottom-five rushing defense. New York has the league’s top rushing offense. Brian Daboll is going to do his best to turn this into a grind, ideally keeping Daniel Jones from having to throw against Green Bay’s peaking pass defense.
Styles make fights, and this one will probably be bowling shoe ugly so give me the Giants +9.5 and UNDER 42.5.
I’ll also put some theoretical cash down on an underdog Browns team at home. Cleveland once again lost thanks in part to a late Jacoby Brissett interception, but hopefully he won’t have to put together a fourth quarter rally in Week 5. The Browns have the chops to put Los Angeles’ newly beefed-up running defense to the test. The Chargers have allowed 5.4 yards per carry this fall and just let rookie Dameon Pierce run for 131 on 14 carries last Sunday.
That gave Davis Mills the leverage to nearly pull off a comeback from an early 21-0 deficit. Brissett is a better quarterback than Mills. Nick Chubb is a better running back than Pierce. The Browns can make this work.
Non-Scumbag locks last week: 2-0 (1.000)
Non-Scumbag locks year to date: 3-3-1 (.500)
