Week 9 brought another profitable Sunday for our Scumbag System ™. It would have been even better had the Miami Dolphins settled for at least one more field goal on fourth-and-short, but these are the perils of betting on an enterprising young head coach in 2022 (and, somehow, a reason why Jim Irsay believes Jeff Saturday will be the next great head coach of the Indianapolis Colts).
Week 10 will provide four divisional rivalries as well as a handful of big underdogs and lofty totals. Is this the week to trust Kirk Cousins? To believe in the Atlanta Falcons chaos? To invest further in the Tennessee Titans’ slow-and-steady progress under Mike Vrabel?
Here’s what our resident dirtbag handicapper had to say about last week’s mediocre result:
Going 1-1-1 doesn’t seem that bad … but when you realize how close we were to an easy 3-0 weekend, it is mildly infuriating. The Dolphins decided they didn’t want to tackle Justin Fields. Mike McDaniel decided to go for it on multiple fourth downs in field goal range and convert none. That should have been a blowout by Miami. The Rams just needed a first down in the fourth quarter to ice the game. Nope … they gave it back to Tom Brady and let him do Brady things.
Frustrating day, but we are on to Week 10.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Detroit Lions +3 vs. the Chicago Bears
It is tough to have a “must win” game in Week 10, but there is one locker room that is feeling that way right now. You know Dan Campbell is simultaneously doing push-ups, packing a lip and getting his team ready to do battle with a divisional foe.
I would say that Detroit has cleaned up their defense, but they haven’t. The Green Bay Packers moved the ball well against them, but Detroit was very stingy in the red zone. I do see a path to Detroit making the playoffs and having a late season surge. However, it has to start here.
They are getting healthier and I can see them leaning heavily on the running game, containing Fields and forcing him to try and make accurate throws. I like that they are in the underdog role as it is an added motivator. Give me the points, give me the Lions.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers OVER 42 points
I’m going to fade the Scumbag system this week with divisional unders. The Atlanta/Carolina game is a battle of bad defenses. I made this total 48 and it it rolled out Sunday evening almost a full touchdown below that at 42. There are just way too many paths to points with these teams. I know the Falcons are a run-first team, but I think the Panthers can do enough to punch a few in and we can watch this one sail over the Vegas total in the third quarter.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: Washington Commanders +11 at the Philadelphia Eagles
I like what I am seeing out of this Washington defense. They have a tough front and their team plays hard. You can’t say that about every team in the NFL — just watch the Cardinals, Packers or Colts play. I think they can slow down the run enough to keep this one close. The concern is the Eagles ability to create big plays with play-action.
[expletive]-it, I’m a Heinicke believer. I made this line +7 so I see some value in a spread that’s four points higher.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part IV: Tennessee Titans (-1) first quarter vs. the Denver Broncos
Tennessee has led after the first quarter every game this year except two, where they were tied. The Titans were a favorite in Week 8 against the Houston Texans, so that’s an L. The other time was as an underdog vs. the Buffalo Bills, making them 7-1 in this category for the season to date. I’ll ride that another week.
Scumbag locks last week: 1-1-1 (.500)
Scumbag locks year to date: 18-10-3 (.629)
My non-scumbag lock: Seattle Seahawks +2.5 vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs. the Minnesota Vikings
Last week was a tidy bankroll boost thanks to Bill Belichick’s ritual destruction of an inexperienced quarterback (Patriots -5) and the abject weirdness of a game between the Chargers and Falcons (Atlanta +3.5). I even hit my unofficial Jacksonville Jaguars +2 recommendation, even if it required another Josh McDaniels meltdown to get there.
After backing home teams last weekend I’m going to take my Geno Smith admiration one step further and believe in the Seahawks vs. Tom Brady on the road. Seattle created plenty of pressure last Sunday against Arizona with only a four-man pass rush, allowing Pete Carroll to flood the secondary with extra defenders and mostly keep Kyler Murray’s passing game in neutral. Now that group gets a Buccaneers’ offensive line that’s made Brady’s return extra unpleasant.
That rising defense — 16.3 points allowed per game in a four-game winning streak — should provide the leverage for Smith and rookie running back Kenneth Walker to do enough to win on the road.
Next is an undervalued Bills team whose spread is dropping thanks to uncertainty about Josh Allen’s throwing elbow. Since he his next pass after the alleged injury flew roughly 65 yards in the air I’m willing to believe it’s not quite the kind of calamity that would throw Case Keenum into the lineup — but if it is, yeah, this bet’s off.
Minnesota is 7-1 but its plus-32 point differential suggests this team is spiritually closer to being 5-3 than undefeated (for comparison’s sake, the 4-4 49ers are at plus-29 and the 5-4 Patriots are at plus-37. But the 6-3 Seahawks are plus-21 so … wait hold on). The Vikings defense has been mostly average in 2022 (19th in overall DVOA) which suggests an 80 percent Allen would still be able to tame them.
If not, Kirk Cousins still has to deal with a brutal defense. Minnesota has only faced one top-14 D in 2022 and that was the Philadelphia Eagles, who held Cousins to seven points.
Non-Scumbag locks last week: 2-0 (1.000)
Non-Scumbag locks year to date: 11-6-1 (.639)
