On Sunday morning, the alert came through the group chat.
“SCUMBAG LOCK OF THE CENTURY
COWBOYS -1 1H”
This was wildly and thoroughly accurate. Dallas compounded Tom Brady’s expanding list of regrets by blowing the doors off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game notable for Dak Prescott’s statement performance, Brett Maher’s, uh, opposite of that, and what was likely Brady’s final game in Tampa. Unfortunately for our expert, it wasn’t one of the official plays chronicled in this column. Now he’s under .500 for the year.
Like the rest of us, he’s still churning through the overloaded Super Wild Card Weekend ™ and staring down two games that look like heavyweight brawls and a pair that, at first glance, are more undercard fodder. This week’s picks are short, simple and minimal. Let’s get to them, forever wondering if he’s merely saving all his good bets for the group chat.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 over the Jacksonville Jaguars
Andy Reid off a bye. Can’t lose.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week Part II: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills OVER 48 points
Zero defense being played by those teams.
Well, great. Thanks for the in-depth analysis this week, RIS!
Scumbag locks last week: 1-2 (.333)
Scumbag locks in the regular season: 28-28-3 (.500)
Scumbag locks in the playoffs:1-2 (.333)
Scumbag locks year to date: 29-30-3 (.500)
My non-scumbag lock: San Francisco 49ers -3.5 vs. the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 48.5 points
I climbed back to .500 last week thanks solely to Maher’s dramatic recreation of the 1996 Rene Russo/Cheech Marin blockbuster Tin Cup. Cowboys-Buccaneers under 45.5 points? NEVER IN DOUBT.
That Prescott performance has rightfully instilled faith in Dallas, but the 49ers are a nightmare matchup for him (and pretty much everyone). There are stars at every level of that defense. Nick Bosa can chase him from the pocket while reducing his team’s reliance on blitzes. Fred Warner is everywhere. Charvarius Ward can limit CeeDee Lamb and Talanoa Hufanga can clean up whatever sluices through.
Granted, Brock Purdy is the Niners QB, but thriving with a shaky passer is the Kyle Shanahan way. He thrived last week by simply presenting the threat of a deep ball (even though he didn’t connect on many). It’ll be interesting to see what his head coach has for him next against a much tougher Cowboy D.
The line on Giants-Eagles has been rising so I’m stealing a Scumbag System ™ play and going under on a divisional matchup. Sure, every game *but* that Cowboys-Bucs game went over last week. And Philadelphia put up 48 points on its own when these two teams met at full strength back in Week 15.
Hm, really? OK.
Nah, I’m still in on it. The Giants know their best bet here is to run the ball, control as much clock as they can and limit the Eagles’ total number of players. The Eagles have two key players working through nagging injuries in Jalen Hurts and Lane Johnson. I’m here for either a slower paced game OR one where Philadelphia sprints out of the gates, puts up some points early, smothers New York with its top-ranked pass defense and then grinds out long, clock-killing drives throughout the second half.
Non-scumbag locks last week: 2-1 (.667)
Non-scumbag locks in the regular season: 23-24-1 (.490)
Non-scumbag locks in the playoffs: 2-1 (.667)
Non-scumbag locks year to date: 25-25-1 (.500)
