A pattern has emerged from our resident scumbag handicapper. When the weather grows cold, so do his picks.
Last year, the Rhode Island Scumbag proved to be the world’s most fadeable expert, botching every single recommended bet from Week 17 onward. 2022-23 hasn’t been as disastrous, but the downturn is significant. The RIS was 23-15-3 with his locks as November wrapped up — a tidy, profitable 59.8 percent hit rate. In the eight weeks since he’s 6-17, meaning if you’d done the opposite of his picks the past two months you’d be up roughly 9.5 units.
Is the Conference Championship round the place where that trend stops? The final non-Super Bowl Sunday of the NFL season means only two games and a rough spot to find obvious betting value. The San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles will stage a battle between explosive offenses and smothering defenses. The Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs will pair arguably the league’s top two quarterbacks against each other in a matchup Joe Burrow has won three times in the last 13 months alone.
So who do we have for Super Bowl 57? Two completely different picks — which, if you’ve seen how bad our locks perform when we agree, you’ll recognize is a good thing.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
I hate this team and I always have. Mostly because I bet against them almost every week for the last two seasons. That has been a losing proposition.
NOT THIS WEEK! Bengals by 10-plus in Arrowhead Stadium.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs. the San Francisco 49ers
Easiest pick since Dallas/TB. God, how much can I get down on this game? It will be at least five units from this degen. Hoping to push that to 10 if I have a nice NCAA hoops Saturday.
Scumbag locks last week: 0-2 (.000)
Scumbag locks in the regular season: 28-28-3 (.500)
Scumbag locks in the playoffs:1-4 (.200)
Scumbag locks year to date: 29-32-3 (.477)
My non-scumbag lock: San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 46.5 points
Like last week’s Eagles game, this line has risen slowly throughout the week. That one clocked in at under 48.5 thanks single-handedly to the Philly defense. They won’t have as easy a road this time around, but the Eagles will have to contend with the league’s top defense. Since Week 8 only two opponents have been able to hang more than 20 points on the 49ers.
Factor in two strong pass rushes and secondaries and this could be a game that opts for a run-heavy approach early. That’d grind clock and inch us closer to the rock fight capable of comfortably sliding under the 46.5 total.
I also like the Chiefs and 49ers moneyline bets, but I am in no way, shape or form confident enough in them to make them a lock. The RIS betting against them, however, make me feel a little bit better at least.
Non-scumbag locks last week: 2-0 (1.000)
Non-scumbag locks in the regular season: 23-24-1 (.490)
Non-scumbag locks in the playoffs: 4-1 (.800)
Non-scumbag locks year to date: 27-25-1 (.519)
