AT the start of 2024, Humza Yousaf was the first minister, the SNP and Greens were partners in the Scottish Government, the SNP had 48 MPs at Westminster and Rishi Sunak was the Prime Minister.
A lot has changed over the course of the last 12 months and many questions have popped up along the way: What now for independence? How will the SNP and Scottish Labour get on at Holyrood in 2026? Can the Scottish Government pass a Budget without the Greens? Will Labour at Westminster make things any better?
Some of those have been answered, others we continue to ponder, but let us take you on a look back over the last year in the world of Scottish politics as we take stock and mull over what the future could hold.
A scandal to start
The year did not get off to the best of starts for the Scottish Government as Michael Matheson quit as health secretary following an investigation into an £11,000 roaming bill he racked up on his parliamentary iPad while on holiday to Morocco.
He had initially agreed to claim £3000 of the bill as part of his expenses allowance, while his office provision paid the rest – meaning the public purse covered the bill in full. After the expense came to light, he later agreed to cover the cost himself after admitting the reason behind the astonishing bill was his teenage sons using the device as a hotspot to watch football.
Later in the year, as it emerged he had breached the MSP code of conduct, Matheson was suspended from Parliament for 27 sitting days and had his pay docked for 54 following a vote. It was the harshest sanction ever handed down by the Parliament to one of its members.
It was a bizarre incident that turned into a huge headache for the SNP and it no doubt had a serious knock-on effect at the General Election as the party’s credibility suffered. Falkirk – Matheson’s constituency – had been the safest SNP seat in Scotland but they were unable to hang onto it, with candidate Toni Giugliano blaming the loss on the scandal.
A harsh lesson for the Scottish Government to kick off 2024, but there were more to come.
Bute House Agreement ends
Yousaf had had an extremely challenging start to life as first minister, but few things could have prepared journalists for the bombshell he dropped on April 25.
With no warning at all, Yousaf decided to sack Green co-leaders Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater from his government, ending the powersharing deal known as the Bute House Agreement.
Though Scottish Green members had been due to vote in the coming weeks on whether they wanted to stay in government after a series of policy disagreements, the news still blindsided reporters as Yousaf – previously seen as courteous and diplomatic – brutally kicked out Harvie and Slater and boy, were they mad.
the Greens accused him of an “act of political cowardice”.
While Yousaf claimed the agreement – previously branded as being “worth its weight in gold” – had reached its “natural conclusion”,The shock and fury was clear when Green MSP Gillian Mackay ended up in tears on the radio over the break-up, branding it “one of the worst pieces of political judgement I’ve ever seen”.
The days that followed were a never-ending nightmare for Yousaf. The very next day he cancelled a speech in Glasgow to stay closer to home in Dundee where he announced an uplift of £80 million for affordable housing as a way of trying to quieten things down.
But journalists were not about to let him try and ride this out as they hurried onto trains to question him over his future which had very rapidly come into question. The Tories had tabled a vote of no confidence and, crucially, the Greens said they would back it.
Soon enough, Yousaf announced his resignation as first minister, just over a year after he came into post, admitting he had underestimated the level of hurt his decision would cause.
It needed to happen, but there was no immediately obvious answer as to who would replace him. Kate Forbes was a favourite, as she narrowly lost out to Yousaf in the previous leadership contest, but no one was sure if she would run again. Could the SNP really risk more in-fighting in another leadership battle so close to a General Election?
Swinney becomes First Minister
On the same day Yousaf announced his resignation, senior SNP figures quickly came out to back party veteran John Swinney as the new leader and once he confirmed he was running, it didn’t take him too long to strike up talks with Forbes to ensure there would be no contest.
Many MSPs had urged Forbes to run, but after she was offered a position in government under Swinney, she decided not to launch a campaign. It meant Swinney faced no competition and was eventually named as Scotland’s seventh First Minister.
READ: Why independence poll won't trigger flurry of action within SNP
Though some doubted whether a man who had been almost constantly part of the Scottish Government since the SNP’s landslide in 2011 could change the tide for the SNP, there was a sense the party was crying out for stability and Swinney was regarded as the steady hand that was needed. He would not have to wait long for his first big test.
SNP suffer at General Election
Later that month, Sunak announced a snap General Election for July 4.
It was another curveball journalists were not expecting. The polls were dire for the Tories and it was thought Sunak would give himself more time to cook up a recovery, but as speculation throughout the day on May 22 grew to almost bursting point, Sunak famously stood out in the painfully-convenient pouring rain to confirm a summer election – an image that will surely be remembered for years to come.
With Swinney barely having emptied his in-tray, few were optimistic about the SNP’s chances.
As Keir Starmer’s Labour Party secured a victory, what had been a mostly yellow Scotland became somewhat more multi-coloured with a red belt running right through the centre. The SNP could count on two hands the MPs they were left with – a grand total of nine.
Turns out the result was actually better than Swinney himself expected, as it was revealed earlier this month he had feared a total wipe-out.
It left commentators pondering whether that was the end – at least for now – of any tangible progress towards Scottish independence, despite support remaining much the same.
Tories in meltdown
As we moved into September, the Scottish Tories were making utter fools of themselves.
After Douglas Ross announced he would be stepping down as leader of the party following a huge fallout over his decision to run for Westminster again in place of David Duguid, he lost his seat and a rather ugly contest to replace him began.
Turns out he will be the last to hold a seat in Westminster and Holyrood at the same time as MSPs voted earlier this month to ban the concept of “double-jobbing”.
A highly amusing moment in the Tory leadership contest came when party MSP Stephen Kerr accidentally slagged off Murdo Fraser – one of the contenders – in public, branding his campaign “awful” in WhatsApp statuses.
Russell Findlay was eventually announced as the new Scottish Tory leader at the end of September but has so far failed to impress, with MSPs across all parties reacting with particular disgust to his party’s attempts to throw out a policy giving free bus travel to asylum seekers. With Reform UK breathing down their necks targeting Holyrood seats, 2026 could be grim for them.
Bad times for Anas Sarwar
Speaking of 2026, despite snatching back dozens of seats from the SNP at the General Election, it could still end up being a tricky time for Scottish Labour.
Post-election things got off to a bad start for leader Anas Sarwar with a huge row over the two-child benefit cap. His MPs voted to keep the controversial measure in place depsite him making previous commitments Scottish Labour representatives would "push" to scrap the cap.
Then there was a saga over the Winter Fuel Payment which grew increasingly bizarre as time went on. After his MPs voted to cut the benefit for pensioners, his MSPs also voted to support the cut at Holyrood despite calls for a reversal.
But then he left journalists scratching their heads weeks later as he U-turned to say his party would bring back a Winter Fuel Payment if they came to power at Holyrood, in full knowledge of how unpopular the move by Westminster had been.
More recently, he's found himself stuck between a rock and a hard place again after the UK Government announced it would not be giving compensation to Waspi [Women Against State Pension Inequality] women, a decision he said was the wrong one.
How Scottish Labour separate themselves from their London counterparts is an ongoing conundrum for Sarwar, but he's going to have to give it serious thought if he is to replicate July's success at Holyrood in 2026.
The death of an independence giant
The middle part of the year had been a tumultuous time in Scottish politics, but perhaps the most shocking story of the year dropped at teatime on October 12.
Former first minister Alex Salmond, the man who took Scotland so close to independence, had suddenly died of a heart attack in Macedonia.
Completely unexpected at the age of 69, the news was difficult for independence supporters to process, particularly as he had tarnished his reputation after being a hero to so many.
But the overwhelming response to his passing was one of respect and gratitude for how close he took Scotland to self-determination. Whatever you thought of him, his political achievements were colossal and many still wonder whether we will ever see his like again in Scottish politics.
Polls bring boost for indy
Shortly after, there was speculation we would see record-breaking support for independence as people reflected on Salmond’s legacy, and strangely that has so far come to pass.
Norstat recorded its highest-ever support for independence at 54% earlier this month. This was also the highest support seen in any poll for four years.
Just days later, another poll from Believe in Scotland put support for independence at 59% if Scotland were to become a republic.
Could the passing of an independence icon really have sparked such a flurry of support? Or were the Scottish Government managing to turn the tide with moves such as reinstating a Winter Fuel Payment after the UK Government cruelly stripped it from pensioners?
SNP insiders told The National the poll was evidence that Swinney’s plan to build independence support steadily was working, with Labour’s unimpressive start to life back in Government likely helping too.
After a rocky year for the SNP and the Scottish independence cause, the polls will surely act as a boost for supporters and while we’re unlikely to see any referendum any time soon, it certainly whets the appetite for seeing what state the Union might be in come this time next year.