Australian National University will have its international student allocation slashed by more than 14%, according to new data, one of 15 institutions set to lose a slice of the cohort as the government is criticised for the “random” and “arbitrary” caps.
Department of Education figures, made public on Friday evening, show 23 universities will be able to enrol more international students than they had in 2023 while 15 will have their numbers slashed. The increases, though, are modest, not exceeding more than a few hundred additional foreign students.
Federation University Australia has been the hardest hit by the cap: regional Victoria’s largest educational institution will only be permitted to take 1,100 overseas students from 2025, compared with 2023’s intake of 2,306.
Charles Sturt University has received the most generous cap increase to 1,000 students, the data shows, representing a 517% increase in their capacity to enrol students in 2025 compared with their 2023 figures (less than 200).
But it’s a -66% decrease on the university’s 2019 intake, which were significantly higher at 2,994, prior to the introduction of ministerial direction 107 – a regulation enacted in December 2023 that gave priority to students applying to low-risk institutions and caused disproportionate delays and visa rejections across regional campuses.
Murdoch University in Perth had its international student cohort slashed by 34% to 3,500, down from 5,272 in 2023. The University of Sydney and the University of Melbourne, both composed of more than 40% international students, have received -7% decreases on their 2023 intake, making their 2025 cap 11,900 and 9,300 respectively.
Despite being composed of less than 35% international students, Victoria University and the University of Wollongong have had harsher caps imposed of -11% and -8%, bringing their cap down to 3,600 and 3,700 respectively.
The revelations come amid warnings the tertiary education sector has not been adequately consulted on policy and faces extensive staff cuts in coming months. Industry spokespeople have warned the plan to cap international student enrolments at a maximum of 270,000 would lead to thousands of job losses and the closure of as many as 300 independent colleges.
Federation University Australia, Murdoch University and Australian National University are each composed of 35% or above international students, a figure Deakin and RMIT’s vice chancellors have argued would be a better overall cap to introduce. Instead, the caps imposed on remaining institutions with more than 35% international students vary widely.
Western Sydney University’s vice-chancellor, Professor George Williams, said he was “frankly shocked” by the details of the cap, which he said would significantly hamper his institution’s international enrolments. His institution’s 2025 intake figure is a -2% decrease on 2023’s total of 3,461 students.
“The formula is deeply flawed, deeply random and arbitrary,” he told Friday’s hearing. “It will have perverse unintended consequences … and cause great damage.”
Guardian Australia understands the limits were developed based on data provided by institutions, including recent levels of new international student commencements and concentration of foreign student enrolments in their onshore cohorts.
The deputy Greens leader and spokesperson for higher education, Senator Mehreen Faruqi, said it was “crystal clear” opposition to the bill was “pretty universal”.
“Gaping holes in the caps, perverse outcomes, uncertainties, unknown inconsistencies and a lack of consultation are just some of the flaws that make this bill and the whole policy process a complete mess,” she said.
The University of Notre Dame Australia has been granted a cap of 700 international students, a 140% increase on 2023, while the University of the Sunshine Coast has been given a cap of 1,200, a 108% increase on 2023 numbers but just 12 more foreign students than commenced at the university in 2019.
The minister for education, Jason Clare, said the caps were a “fairer way” to manage the system, which would allow almost every regional university to enrol more international students next year than they did last year.
“It should not just be the big metro unis that benefit from international education,” he said.
But Regional Universities Network CEO, Alec Webb, said “winning has never felt so much like losing”.
As a result of ministerial direction 107, he said institutions had received “punitive cap allocations that offer little-to-no growth, certainty or sense”, with the ongoing uncertainty raising questions over whether many universities would be able to reach the upper limit caps they’d received.
“In many cases, this runs counter to the intent of the policy,” he said.
“The long lead times for student visas means that future international students will continue to see their term 1 2025 enrolment aspirations blocked.”
Charles Darwin University (CDU) vice-chancellor professor Scott Bowman agreed. He said the uncertainty that had arisen from recent visa crackdowns would “continue to favour large metropolitan universities” that hadn’t been as severely impacted by visa rejections and delays as regional campuses.
“These universities have comparatively benefitted and continue to enrol large proportions of international students from concentrated ‘low-risk’ countries.”.
He pointed to data showing the Northern Territory experienced a -67.4% drop in visa grants in the first half of 2024 compared with 2023 at the same time New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT had their grant shares increase, raising questions over whether they’d be able to reach their caps.
The Holmes Institute CEO, Stephen Nagle, told Friday’s inquiry Labor’s proposed bill would “gut” the private sector, comparing it to a “Soviet-style” intervention. He said as a result of the seemingly “random” cap, some of his campuses would be forced to close, while around 100 jobs would be lost.
The Independent Tertiary Education Council Australia (ITECA) chief executive, Troy Williams, said the body had been inundated with questions from members who were “perplexed, bewildered and deeply worried”.
He said some independent providers had been given caps of zero without explanation, while others would be forced to halt enrolments in excess of -80%, likely causing thousands of job losses.
“The impact of these cuts on the number of international students able to come to Australia is staggering with up to 300 independent colleges expected to close,” he said.
“Their employees will lose their jobs, as will other employees in colleges that will have to scale down to survive.”
