US Retaliatory Strikes Against Iranian Proxies Raise Concerns over Deterrence Strategy
The recent retaliatory strikes carried out by the Biden administration against Iranian proxies have generated mixed responses and raised questions about the effectiveness of the US deterrence strategy in the Middle East. The strikes come in response to escalating attacks by Iranian proxies since October 7th, which have targeted both American and Israeli interests in the region.
Critics argue that the US strikes have failed to address the root cause of the problem, which is Iran's state sponsorship of terrorism. By targeting secondary and tertiary proxies instead of directly confronting Iran, skeptics worry that the US is sending a message of hesitation and providing limited deterrence against future attacks. Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, former National Security Advisor to Vice President Pence, expressed his disappointment with the current approach, stating, 'We are not going to go after the state sponsor of terrorism in the region, which is Iran, and we're gonna hit secondary and tertiary targets. We're not going to go after the primary target.'
Kellogg further emphasized the need to establish a credible deterrence model to prevent further aggression from Iran. He argued that Iran understands the US's risk aversion to escalation but lacks confidence in the US's willingness to take decisive action against them. He stressed the importance of challenging Iran's leadership and facilities to create a true deterrent effect, even acknowledging the risks involved.
Notably, the American public's perception of the US's involvement in the Middle East is also a crucial factor. Kellogg highlighted how Iran aims to push the US out of the region by continuously targeting American soldiers and civilians, ultimately eliciting a retreat due to public pressure. He emphasized that the US must clearly communicate its commitment to finish this fight and deter Iran's malign activities.
The response from Iran's President, Raisi, indicates that the US's change in tone has not gone unnoticed. President Raisi highlighted that the US no longer claims that all military options are on the table, suggesting a shift in the US's approach. Critics argue that this change in rhetoric could undermine the US's credibility and embolden Iran to continue its provocative behavior.
Furthermore, observers have expressed concern about China's role in the region, particularly regarding its efforts to broker peace deals between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The US's apparent passiveness towards China's expanding influence, including the establishment of Chinese military bases in Djibouti and its growing partnership with Iran, has raised questions about the US's ability to effectively confront its adversaries in the region.
As tensions escalate and the situation remains complex, experts argue that it is crucial for the US to review its deterrence strategy. The US must demonstrate a steadfast commitment to protect its interests and the interests of its allies while deterring Iran's state-sponsorship of terrorism. Only by establishing a credible and robust deterrence model can the US hope to bring stability and security to the region.
