The fate of the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) in the Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh, scheduled to be held before June 2024, largely depends on whether or not the Opposition parties unite and which of them do.
While being confident that the anti-incumbency factor will work to its advantage, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is treading cautiously in forging alliances. There is growing clamour within the party to ally with the Jana Sena Party (JSP) given the mass appeal of Pawan Kalyan and the ground that his party has purportedly gained over the years.
Mr. Kalyan has said that he intends to chart his own course if the situation demands it, following the uneasiness between his party and the BJP. This remark is being viewed as a sign of his inclination to embrace the TDP, which has so far not openly committed to it.
Mr. Kalyan is reportedly unhappy that the BJP has not kept its promises made at the time of bifurcation of erstwhile Andhra Pradesh. This includes facilitating the construction of the greenfield capital city Amaravati. But he is trying not to antagonise Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who he claims to share a good relationship with, lest the State’s interests be compromised.
Sources say he is wary of the consequences of taking a hasty decision on the alliance, but is also sending out signals that he may eventually choose the TDP as the JSP’s new partner.
The JSP came into existence on March 14, 2014, but did not contest the elections that year. Instead, it chose to focus on building the organisation first. It contested elections in 2019, but it suffered a devastating blow, winning just one out of the 138 Assembly seats in which it fielded candidates. Mr. Kalyan himself lost the election in both the constituencies (Bhimavaram and Gajuwaka) in which he contested. Now, even that lone JSP MLA, Rapaka Vara Prasada Rao, representing the Razole Scheduled Caste constituency in Konaseema district, has switched to the YSRCP. The JSP is thus faced with the daunting task of improving its tally from zero to at least a respectable double digits. It certainly cannot recover from another blow.
Its biggest dilemma then is whether to continue as the BJP’s ally or join hands with the TDP or to ally with both if they feel the need to form such a united front to take on the ruling YSRCP.
Meanwhile, the BJP insists that its alliance with the JSP is intact. But some of its leaders say these statements are made for public consumption and that the party nurses ambitions to grow on its own.
The BJP joined hands with the TDP in 2014 and won four seats. The alliance came apart in 2018. In the Assembly elections in 2019, the national party drew a blank. It also did not win any seats in the Lok Sabha elections. It had evidently incurred the wrath of the voters for not implementing the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Act and for denying Special Category Status. Now, the BJP is hoping to make inroads into the State in 2024 against all the odds. The main problem is that it it is seen as extending tacit support to the YSRCP. A few BJP leaders lent credence to this perception by openly making comments to that effect. Disciplinary action was taken against them by the party high command.
The BJP’s debacle in the recent elections to the Legislative Council does not augur well for its dream of performing well the 2024 elections.
Meanwhile, the TDP is pulling out all the stops to capitalise on the anti-incumbency factor. Whether it tastes success remains to be seen, but it stands a chance of at least improving its tally in the Assembly from the present 19. The TDP’s original strength was 23 but fell to 19 because four of its MLAs — Vallabhaneni Vamsi Mohan, Vasupalli Ganesh Kumar, Maddali Giridhar and Karanam Balaram — defected to the YSRCP though they did not formally join it.
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Former Chief Minister and TDP president N. Chandrababu Naidu and Pawan Kalyan have met on a few occasions in recent months and discussed ways to end YSRCP rule. However, they have stopped short of announcing their likely tie-up. They have stressed on the need for “pro-democratic forces” to wage a collective battle against the YSRCP.
What appears to be certain is that at least two of the opposition parties will forge an alliance to confront the YSRCP, which may be down but not out.
