The Commerce Department will publish its monthly estimate for retail sales prior to the start of trading Tuesday, with economists looking for higher gas prices to lift the overall spending tally with an added boost from Amazon's (AMZN) -) Prime Day shopping event.
The headline spending figure, which is not adjusted for inflation and includes overall sales of gasoline and other goods that have been volatile in recent months, is expected to show overall sales rose 0.4% from last month, when the collective spending tally was pegged at $$689.5 billion.
The closely-tracked control group number, which excludes autos, building materials, office suppliers, gas station sales and tobacco and feeds into the government's GDP calculations, is expected to rise 0.2% following a solid 0.6% gain in June.
Amazon's Prime Day, which moved back to July following a Covid-era stint in October and generated around $6.4 bi, is likely to provide a solid boost to online sales, but softening trends in restaurants, as well as light vehicle sales, could keep the spending total in check as consumers move cautiously into the autumn months.
Big box retailers Home Depot (HD) -), Target Corp (TGT) -) and Walmart (WMT) -) are also slated to provide July quarter updates this week, with investors likely focused on the prospects for near-term sales as consumers struggle with rising gas prices, soaring mortgage rates and the end of a moratorium on student loan payments that could take some $100 billion out of retail spending over the coming year.
"The July retail sales report is likely to be consistent with a continued softening in consumers’ spending growth, as excess savings accumulated during Covid continue to dwindle and higher interest rates bite," said Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics. "The restart of student loan repayments from October likely will worsen the downshift in spending growth."
