ANCHORAGE, Alaska — Candidates in the special U.S. House race are scheduled to meet in person for a forum in Anchorage Wednesday afternoon. The Alaska Division of Elections is set to release results of the election while the forum is ongoing, with all three contenders sharing the stage when results are live-streamed for the world to see.
Alaska’s first ranked-choice election was held Aug. 16. After a 15-day waiting period dictated by Alaska’s election laws, results of the race will finally be unveiled by election officials Wednesday at 4 p.m. local time, the Division of Elections said Tuesday. Candidates are scheduled to meet for a 90-minute forum set to begin at 3 p.m. hosted by the Alaska Oil and Gas Association.
Nearly 192,000 ballots have been counted so far. With only first-choice votes tallied, Democratic former state lawmaker Mary Peltola is currently in the lead with 39.6% of votes. Republican former Gov. Sarah Palin is second with 30.9%. Republican Nick Begich III, a businessman and member of a prominent family of Alaska Democrats, trails in third with 27.8%. Write-in candidates got around 1.6% of votes.
Under Alaska’s new election rules, the winner must get support from over half of voters. Since none of the candidates has reached that threshold with first-choice votes, the candidate in last place will be eliminated and election officials will use the second-choice selections of that candidate’s supporters to determine the winner.
With Begich in last, he is set to be eliminated, and the race will be determined by the number of his supporters who ranked Palin second; enough second-choice votes for Palin could put her over Peltola in the final vote count.
Palin, a polarizing figure in Alaska politics making her first run for office since her vice presidential bid in 2008, has support from many right-leaning voters in the state but is also disliked by others for her decision to quit as governor in 2009, her willingness to go against Alaska Republican Party leadership at times, and her decision to focus on lucrative TV and book deals since leaving the governor’s mansion 13 years ago.
Begich, who had the backing of many state Republican insiders leading up to the special election, was increasingly open about attacking Palin’s record in the lead-up to the election, which could impact the number of his supporters who marked her name on their ballots.
Political observers and pollsters call this race a toss up between Palin and Peltola — either could come out ahead. The winner is set to be the first woman to hold Alaska’s lone U.S. House seat. Peltola would also be the first Alaska Native elected to Congress.
Ranked choice voting experts have long said the system favors candidates who can build broad appeal and play by the ranked-choice rules. Palin is neither — three in five Alaskans think negatively about her, according to multiple polls, and she has called Alaska’s new voting system “whack” and “cockamamie.”
Peltola has more closely adhered to the unwritten rules of ranked-choice voting — she has refrained from attacking either of her opponents, focusing instead on drawing support on issues that many Alaskans agree on, like the need to protect fisheries and abortion access. Still, the victory of a Democrat could be seen as an upset — combined, the two Republicans in the race commanded nearly 60% of the vote.
Wednesday is the deadline for election officials to accept ballots from overseas voters. Election officials decided earlier this year they would delay the ranked-choice tabulation until all ballots are received — a decision praised by some experts for avoiding confusion and denounced by others for prolonging uncertainty.
Once results are tabulated, the Alaska Board of Elections is set to complete the process of certifying the results on Friday. What awaits the winner is a scramble to put together a congressional office as they continue to campaign ahead of November.
The special election results will determine who will fill Alaska’s lone U.S. House seat for the last four months of a term previously held by Rep. Don Young, who died in March. All three of the candidates on the special election ballot are set to appear on the general election ballot in November that will determine who will hold the seat for the next two-year term that begins in January.
Wednesday’s candidate forum is set to take place at the Dena’ina Center. It will be the first time all three candidates sit side-by-side since late June. Then, at a forum hosted by the Anchorage Chamber of Commerce, the candidates shared moments of laughter, took a selfie, and complimented each other. With results expected while forum is still ongoing, Wednesday could be a very different scene.
Kara Moriarty, President of the Alaska Oil and Gas Association, said by phone Tuesday that the timing of the forum had been scheduled in July. She said she was not aware of when the ranked choice voting tabulation would take place when the forum was scheduled. The schedule of the forum would not be changed due to the Division of Election’s announcement, she added.
Representatives for the campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment Tuesday.
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