Workers are still hard to pin down but the latest jobs report may point to softening in the labour market.
The Australian Bureau of Statistic’s monthly labour force report for March, due on Thursday, is expected to return another relatively strong reading after the jobless rate returned to its 48-year low of 3.5 per cent in February.
This followed a weakening in employment numbers over December and January that was completely unwound in February, with a surge in illness and a lift in unemployed people with jobs lined up in the future largely accounting for the volatile summer results.
Westpac economists have pencilled in a 25,000 rise in employment following a 64,600 bounceback in February, with signs of cooling starting to emerge.
Analysis from the bank’s economists pointed to a slowdown in employment growth viewed over three-month averages, with the easing across most industries and not just an isolated few.
Conditions in the labour market will be watched carefully by the central bank as it weighs up its next interest rate move.
Although the Reserve Bank of Australia is keen to keep as many people in jobs as possible as it fights inflation with higher interest rates, it has warned that too much competition in the jobs market can push wages higher and fuel inflation.
Last week, the central bank opted to keep interest rates on hold with the intention of letting its hikes so far catch up and flow through the economy.
RBA deputy governor Michele Bullock is due to appear on a panel on Wednesday, which will be watched carefully for insights into the bank’s next moves.
While the RBA paused interest rates in April, the bank has made it clear there may need to be more interest rate hikes in the future to bring inflation back within its target range of two-three per cent.
Also worth watching will be weekly and month consumer confidence reports on Tuesday, as well as National Australia Bank’s monthly business survey.
The statistics bureau will also drop December quarter business activity data on Wednesday along with business turnover data for February.
Also on Thursday, the bureau will release overseas arrivals and departures data.
Meanwhile, the Australian Securities Exchange is likely to resume trading flat to higher on Tuesday, after the Easter long weekend.
The most traded ASX SPI200 share price index contract gained nine points to 7248 points on the weekend, after Wall Street ended narrowly higher on Thursday ahead of the US Easter break.
The US S&P 500 climbed 0.36 per cent to end the session at 4,105.02 points. The Nasdaq gained 0.76 per cent to 12,087.96 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.01 per cent to 33,485.29 points.
On Thursday, the Australian market ended weaker with the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index down 18.2 points, or 0.25 per cent, to 7,219, while the All Ordinaries finished 22.3 points lower, or 0.3 per cent, to 7,412.
The weaker close snapped the exchange’s eight-session winning streak, its longest since October 2017.
– AAP
