Nearly 5 million American families may face profound disruption under a proposed 2024 mass deportation program, according to a recent report from the Center for Migration Studies (CMS). The report warns that such a large-scale deportation effort could break up families, causing widespread social and economic consequences. The analysis shows that 5.8 million U.S. households include at least one undocumented resident. Of these, 4.7 million are "mixed-status" households, where U.S. citizens or legal residents live alongside undocumented individuals.
The report, an update to a 2017 study using data from the 2022 American Community Survey, details the significant potential impacts. More than half of the 10.9 million undocumented individuals in the U.S. have lived in the country for at least a decade, establishing deep community ties. Their removal, the authors argue, severely disturb long-established social networks and harm local economies. Nearly 10 million U.S. citizens could experience economic hardship, with the median household income for mixed-status families projected to fall from $75,500 to $39,000—a drop of more than 48%. This sharp decline could drive up poverty rates and place additional strain on public welfare programs.
The economic contributions of undocumented immigrants are a focal point of the report. With a labor force participation rate of 77.2%, these individuals are more likely to be employed than the national average of 63.5%. In 2022, they collectively paid $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes. The report suggests that removing undocumented workers from the labor force would not only reduce tax revenues but also disrupt essential sectors where many of them are employed. About 74% of undocumented workers hold jobs considered essential, compared to 65% of native-born workers.
A new study from the National Foundation for American Policy indicates that U.S. economic growth will increasingly rely on immigration as retiring Baby Boomers exit the workforce and birth rates stagnate. By 2052, the number of U.S.-born workers in the labor force is projected to peak at 146.7 million, with future labor force growth being driven solely by immigrants.
Latino Donor Collaborative and Wells Fargo published a study last month that revealed that Latinos contributed $3.6 trillion to the U.S. economy in 2020, which would hypothetically rank U.S. Latinos as the fifth largest economy in the world surpassing countries like France, United Kingdom and Canada.
CMS also highlights potential risks to the housing market, noting that 1.5 million households with undocumented residents hold mortgages. The report warns that mass deportations could lead to widespread mortgage defaults, threatening housing market stability.
The impact on children could be particularly severe, with 5.5 million U.S.-born minors living in households with at least one undocumented parent. For 1.8 million of these children, both parents are undocumented. The report estimates that separating families would cost at least $116.5 billion in childrearing expenses if the state is left to care for these children. Beyond financial costs, the authors cite psychological damage similar to that observed during the Trump administration's 2018 family separation policy, which medical experts have described as causing lasting emotional and developmental harm.
The report shows that the proposed deportation program's reach extends well beyond undocumented individuals, with nearly 9.7 million U.S. citizens living in households that would be affected. The analysis indicates that many mixed-status households have stronger community ties and higher rates of health insurance coverage than undocumented-only households, further underscoring the social fabric that could be torn apart.
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