After days of panic and hand-wringing over presidential polls that show President Joe Biden possibly narrowly losing to Donald Trump a year from now, last night Democrats were given a reprieve from their doleful mood as the off-year elections delivered victories across the country. With the exception of the Mississippi governorship (which no one seriously thought could be won by a Democrat), they swept all the big bellwether elections, from flipping the Virginia House of Delegates and holding the state Senate (pushing Gov. Glenn Youngkin off the short list of GOP Great Whitebread Hopes), winning the important abortion rights referendum in blood red Ohio and re-electing the Democratic governor of Kentucky. There were dozens of other races including state Supreme Court victories and school board seats that were either held or flipped by the Democrats. It was a good night.
But, as is their wont, the Democrats will no doubt revert to their bleak frame of mind as soon as they see another presidential poll or two that shows the race is close. MSNBC's Chris Hayes described this phenomenon perfectly:
The political experience of the Biden era for Democrats is: extended periods of intense anxiety about terrible polling, occasionally punctuated by strangely positive election nights. And then the cycle repeats.
— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) November 8, 2023
I have a theory that Americans are so sour and despondent not so much because of the economy but because our politics seem to be so messed up. The right has been brainwashed into believing that our elections are all rigged and Democrats are trying to destroy them personally. Democrats see the likes of Donald Trump, currently a defendant in four felony trials, and kooks like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., running the Republican Party and it makes them feel like they're in a nightmare from which they can't awaken. Republicans are cheered up at the thought of Trump wreaking revenge on their hated enemies and Democrats are briefly mollified by winning elections but it all feels so futile. On some level, Republicans know they aren't really winning and Democrats know that the country is inches away from an authoritarian takeover by evil clowns. So, of course, 76% of the population thinks the country is going in the wrong direction!
If you want to see a perfect demonstration of our broken politics, tune in tonight to the third Republican presidential debate where the remaining five candidates who made the cut will pretend that it matters. The front runner, Donald Trump, will not be attending this one just as he didn't attend the first two, something no leading candidate would have ever done in the past. It's rudely dismissive of the voters, the party and the people running against him. Chalk this up to yet more boorish behavior from him — which only seems to make his followers love him more.
Instead, Trump is counterprogramming the debate with a big rally in Hialeah, Florida, a 95% Latino community where he has a following. A GOP strategist told NBC News that he's doing it because "a portion of the Republican electorate likes to hear that their candidates are popular with minorities." Naturally, he's doing it just 15 miles away from the venue where his sad-sack rivals will be debating.
At this point, it is a foregone conclusion that unless something cataclysmic happens, Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. In another time a president who was under indictment for trying to overturn the electoral college and inciting an insurrection, not to mention stealing classified documents and storing them in the toilet at his beach club, could be expected to drop out of the race. His rivals know he's not going to do that so the main purpose of those who are at least polling in double digits occasionally are jockeying for second place just in case he keels over.
The race for number two, meanwhile, seems to have finally been sorted out and has come down to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former S. Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. A few months ago everyone assumed that DeSantis would be nipping at Trump's heels by now but it hasn't worked out that way. His campaign has been disastrous and in some polls, he's been overtaken by Haley. He managed to pick up the endorsement of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds this week, which infuriated Trump. He snapped, writing on Truth Social that Reynolds “apparently has begun her retirement tour early as she clearly does not have any ambition for higher office." He continued: "Two extremely disloyal people getting together is, however, a very beautiful thing to watch. They can now remain loyal to each other because nobody else wants them!!!” Desantis, for his part, has taken a few potshots at Trump in recent days but it will be surprising if he really goes after him in the debate. After all, a new poll shows him 39 points behind Trump in his own state of Florida. Sad!
Nikki Haley, his main competition for the silver medal for swimming upstream, seems to be on the rise. There are some polls showing her overtaking DeSantis in Iowa and New Hampshire where she is dominating the "lane" for Republicans who don't like Trump. It's actually not much more than a narrow bike path but for the tiny portion of GOP voters who don't want to vote for Trump in the primary but will almost certainly vote for him in the general, Haley is their choice. Any thought she might end up being Trump's running mate flew out the window when he started calling her "Birdbrain," but again, if she snags that coveted second place, there's a chance that she could end up with the nomination if Trump accidentally inhales too much extra-hold Aquanet one morning and has to drop out.
The remaining three, Vivek Ramaswamy, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott will do whatever it takes to get some attention since that's the only reason they're there. The brief Ramaswamy surge has dissipated precipitously now that people have seen that while he is flamboyantly obnoxious, usually a selling point with the MAGA crowd, he doesn't make them feel good about enjoying it. That's Trump's special talent and nobody does it like he does.
Scott is just a cipher at this point who had some big donors backing him and has gotten nowhere. Although it's still expected that Trump would rather choose an attractive woman as his running mate, there is still a chance he could fit the bill. He's been cautious not to offend the former president but has not demonstrated any willingness to adopt the obsequious sycophancy Trump has come to expect in his VP.
And then there's Christie, who whiffed in the first two debates after promising to tear into Trump. It's unclear what he expects to get out of any of this but a repeat of his performance last weekend at a gathering in Florida at which he was booed lustily by the audience as he tried to tell them that Trump is a liar and a crook. It would certainly be entertaining for the whole country to see.
I'm not sure anyone besides political nerds are interested in anything these people have to say. It's pathetic that they are even bothering with such a useless ritual. It just shows why Democrats are anxious and depressed despite constantly winning elections. The more they win the higher the stakes become in the next one as the Republican Party sinks further and further into a cult of personality.
