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With a market cap of $71.6 billion, Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) is the second-largest provider of non-hazardous solid waste collection, disposal, recycling, and energy services in the United States. The company offers environmental solutions, including waste collection, landfill services, and renewable energy projects, serving residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
Shares of the waste management company have outperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. RSG has risen 26.7% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied 22.5%. Mowever, shares of RSG are up 13.6% on a YTD basis, compared to SPX’s 4.2% gain.
Focusing more closely, the Phoenix, Arizona-based company has outpaced the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLI) 17.5% return over the past 52 weeks and a 5.2% YTD gain.
Despite reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 2024 revenue of $4.1 billion on Feb. 13, Republic Services shares rose over 3% the next day due to an adjusted EPS of $1.58 surpassing the consensus estimate and growing 12.1% year-over-year. Investors were encouraged by the company’s profitability improvements, as adjusted EBITDA rose 9.4% to $1.3 billion, with the EBITDA margin expanding by 110 basis points to 31%. Additionally, Republic Services’ 2025 guidance projected EPS of $6.82 - $6.90, exceeding the consensus estimate, reinforcing confidence.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December 2025, analysts expect RSG’s EPS to grow 6% year-over-year to $6.85. The company's earnings surprise history is promising. It topped the consensus estimates in the last four quarters.
Among the 21 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 11 “Strong Buy” ratings, two “Moderate Buys,” and eight “Holds.”
This configuration is more bullish than three months ago, with nine “Strong Buy” ratings on the stock.
On Feb. 15, Scotiabank raised Republic Services' price target to $233, maintaining a “Sector Perform" rating, citing strong margin execution and continued momentum into 2025. The firm noted management’s plan to nearly triple M&A spending with a strong start in Q1.
As of writing, RSG is trading below the mean price target of $231.10. The Street-high price target of $250 implies a potential upside of 9.4% from the current price levels.
