This week, host Basant Kumar is joined by Newslaundry’s Shivnarayan Rajpurohit and Prateek Goyal to dissect the fallout of exit polls on the stock market.
As the Lok Sabha results starkly contrasted the exit polls – most of which were bullish on the Narendra Modi-led BJP – the stock markets hit an all-time high and then crashed, between June 1 and June 4. The panel throws light on the influence of exit polls, stock manipulation malpractices, and the media’s role as pollsters.
The reporters also delve into the mandate in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh, and the possible reasons that went against the BJP and the factors that worked in favour of the Congress.
Tune in.
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Timecodes
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:24 - Exit Polls
00:13:39 - Election Results
00:51:28 - Recommendations
Recommendations
Shivnarayan Rajpurohit
Prateek Goyal
Basant Kumar
Produced and edited by Saif Ali Ekram, recorded by Anil Kumar.
RWO 324
Sting: [00:00:00] This is a News Laundry podcast, and you're listening to reporters Without Orders.
Basant: Order. Order News, laundry, podcast, reporters without orders. Kumar podcast reporter or ab. Thank you.
Exit poll. How satisfied are you with the
Prateek: exit poll? I don't even watch TV.
Speaker 4: TV is a money maker, TV is no longer profitable. The people who watch TV are [00:01:00] crazy. I'm telling them, we don't watch TV.
Basant: So you heard that Anant Singh, who is known for giving viral content, said that he doesn't believe in TV. There is no behavior of TV.
So Shiv, do you think what Anant Singh is saying that when he was asked about the exit poll, he said that there is no behavior of it. What do you think about the exit poll that came this time in the 2024 Lok Sabha?
Shivnarayan: Um, see, uh, at least Barra exits, main exit pools. Mm-hmm. At.[00:02:00]
Or maybe I think recent memory.
Higher band or lower band minimum maximum seats
mostly.[00:03:00]
The exit poll, all the pollsters claim that our exit poll is scientific, enough representation, representation of all communities, representation of women and men, representation of people of different
Speaker 6: religions.
Shivnarayan: In line with Indian percentage.[00:04:00]
NG or MA or to.
Uh, in states in
water.[00:05:00]
But.
Investigation,
conflict of interest.
Managing director.[00:06:00]
There were a lot of criticisms from BJP, the nationalist parties, so they deleted the tweet. After that, at the same time, in April, I think, and there were also reports about the reporter being released. Yes, and
Basant: we do not know if he is released
Shivnarayan: or not, if he is released, then what is the reason for his release?[00:07:00]
But
results, results. Or
misleading information.
Um, enough representation Ha sabhi wargon ka sabhi samoon ka mahilon ka, purushon ka, aur yuva warg ke jo log hai unka. Toh aisa nahi hai ki aap bol dein ki humne lakhon logon ka exit poll kiya hai. Aapka agar sample size bada ye nahi hai ki aapka exit poll sahi hoga.
Speaker 6: Aapka
Shivnarayan: exit [00:08:00] poll sahi hone ke chances tabhi hoten jab aapka representation India ka jo representation hain sabhi wargon ka uske samaan ho.
Maan lija ki agar India ke representation 5 percent is a part of the population. So you have to take only 5 percent in your sample. Only then it will come close to the exact. Or you may have more chances
Basant: of being right. One more thing is that, what responsibility should be set?
This time, regarding West Bengal, in Access My India, there was some data, on which Sagarika Ghosh had tweeted, that you will be proven wrong in this
Speaker 6: matter,
Basant: and you were. In the last Bengal election, all the exit [00:09:00] poll people said, BJP is doing a lot better. But Prasad Kishore said, we will be below 100, and that's what happened.
So, should the responsibility be decided, that you are speaking, people are investing because of you. President Modi said this time and Amit Shah said this time that invest on 4th of June and you will get good returns.
Speaker 7: I want every citizen to have a little more risk taking capacity. Absolutely. Its very important.
You don't make a lot of money by thinking about it. And 4th June, as you said, the day the elections will be held, you will see in a week that India's stock market will go down. Can
Speaker 8: normally.[00:10:00]
Shivnarayan: I mean, election commission is
market government
to market mostly. Government or coalition government Now
government.[00:11:00]
In key, Joe, responsibility, ethics, home, curry, and I carry a little of a criticized on on air. But aggressive the human body group known poster I haven't seen will be a Do you.[00:12:00]
Prateek: 70 percent is almost correct. He has given a very accurate report on Maharashtra. Prateek,
Shivnarayan: you are saying that in Maharashtra, like the Rudra Agency, their prediction has been correct. Similarly, in the South, including the state of Karnataka, ADINA. Uh, agency
to those small agencies.[00:13:00]
Recognition name.
Prateek: Yeah, he.[00:14:00] [00:15:00]
The country.[00:16:00]
But it's not easy to do what you did in Gujarat, in UP, in MP. You can't change people's minds like that. In this way, I mean, anything can happen. So that thing was also seen here. If you talk about the overall performance of all three, the most powerful performance was done by Congress.
Speaker 6: Congress
Prateek: didn't think about it.
Speaker 6: 17
Prateek: seats of IIT, 13 won. And one seat of theirs was such that Shiv Sena and Tagore faction disagreed that, no, you can't give a ticket to our man, Sanglis. So Shiv Sena, so Congress did not give a ticket to his man. So he was standing independent and he won
Basant: independently. Okay. Congress, Congress
Prateek: did not give him a ticket because of Shiv Sena.
Shiv Sena people disagreed.[00:17:00]
Basant: Kya wajah rahi aur jitna unhone ek drama create kiya Hanuman Chalisa padhna, pehle wo Congress se chunao ladi, phir Nirdaliye jeeti, phir Hanuman Chalisa padhne lagi. Kya wajah rahi aur doosra yeh Pankaja Munde bhi haar gayi itni badi legacy hai unke paas. Toh kayi bade diggaj dharas aayi huye hai Maharashtra mein.
Speaker 6: Let's
Prateek: say.[00:18:00]
We are versus Mar.
Uh
Speaker 6: mm-Hmm.[00:19:00]
Prateek: Um, uh,[00:20:00] [00:21:00] [00:22:00]
We're not going to be able to
Basant: do it. Is it true that Ajit Pawar will be returning home? Look, this news
Prateek: has been around since way back. I mean, whenever news
Speaker 6: comes about
Prateek: Sharat Pawar, [00:23:00] it creates conspiracy theories.
uh, NCP, Sharadwara faction, and Congress.
Basant: So
Prateek: these are all rumors, but wherever Sharadwara comes, a lot
Shivnarayan: of preparations are
Basant: being made.
Shivnarayan: Pratik, I have a question for Maharashtra. In this election in Maharashtra, what is the existence of the two parties? What is their parent organization? Two factions are supported, [00:24:00] Shiv Sena and the other is the NCP.
Like, before the elections, both parties were broken. The NCP seems to be clear, that people have favored the NCP with Sharad Pawar. But Sena is concerned, Uddhav Thackeray has received it, Shiv Sena has received Uddhav. No, sit down or she was saying, uh, she didn't get a shot today. So did you have a difference?
No, I was looking at the margin of Shinde, uh, she was saying, uh, just me, uh, Mumbai,
Basant: uh, Mumbai,
Shivnarayan: Northwest, uh, are Bhatkangle and Buldana. The third one is Buldana. These three seats are won by the Shinde faction. Transcription by CastingWords Ah,[00:25:00]
they were able to win seven seats outta 14 that they contested of 15. The number that you just told us.[00:26:00] [00:27:00] [00:28:00] [00:29:00] [00:30:00]
Prateek: So media channels.
Um, uh,[00:31:00]
Basant: Hmm. Uh.
So, Samajwadi Party did an experiment to remove the Dalit from the unreserved seat. People were upset that the 15 kilometer long Rampath was destroyed by the surrounding roads. The people who used to set up their stalls near the temple and earn 200 400 rupees a day, their shops were removed and big buildings were built, shopping malls, and it was said that you [00:32:00] will be given a shop.
There you go. When it came time to sell the shop, they were told to give Rs 30 lakhs or Rs 40 lakhs for the 90 years of lease. Now how will a poor person get money for the lease? His issue is about the daily bread, right? So, this kind of anger was sufficient, but no one was telling us that we would be able to take revenge on him.
Speaker 9: Media is of nothing. Have you ever seen them talking to a [00:33:00] common man? Never? Have you?
There was a 5 rupee bill on the market, but here it's 20 rupees. What did they get?
Basant: Is the
Speaker 6: media
Basant: raising
Speaker 9: issues? No, there are no issues. Where are the media raising
Basant: issues? What is the issue? There
Speaker 9: are a lot of issues. The biggest issue is unemployment. No one is getting a job. No one is getting more than 5, 000.
Here, people are doing private jobs. I'm going to
Basant: tell you. I'm,
Speaker 9: [00:34:00] I'm media.
Basant: All up. You can't just say we brought in Ram, no one will believe you. No one can bring in Ram, right? Ram has been with us for years, centuries. So, to make all this so, that you, people, now there is no Ayodhya for the people of Ayodhya, right? Hmm. You are saying that There are people of Ayodhya, but there
Prateek: is no Ayodhya for them, so what?
You make
Basant: a 5 star hotel, you make that city a Vatican City. So, what difference does it make to the poor people there? What difference does it make to
Prateek: the poor people there?[00:35:00]
Let's talk
Shivnarayan: about the results. In UP, SAPPA got 37 seats. Congress got 6. BJP got 33. They had a tie up with RLD, who got 2. And AAPNANDAL got 1. So, this is how many seats did UP get. Last time, BJP got 62 seats. AAPNANDAL got 2. So, UP
Basant: surprised us. But Rajasthan also surprised us. Last time, there were 25 seats, right?
Huh? Last
Shivnarayan: time, Bhajpa got a choice and their alliance was
Basant: with
Shivnarayan: Hanuman Benewal, whose party is RLTP. The
Basant: elections
Shivnarayan: this time, let me tell you, the last two elections, in 2014 and 2019, Bhajpa [00:36:00] got 25 seats. Uh, I think, when I went to Rajasthan for coverage, the Congress leaders in Rajasthan, the Congress office in Jaipur, I spoke to the spokesperson there, and other Congress leaders, they didn't have any expectation that they would win so many seats, that
Speaker 6: they
Shivnarayan: would win 8 seats.
On their own basis
or, uh,
I think.
itna bada, uh, gap hoga. Congress maximum, I think, Congress ka khud ka estimate tha ki maximum saath, seer, paanch[00:37:00]
I don't think so.
Uh, sorry.
Basant: Oh, Jyoti Mirga.
Shivnarayan: Yes, Jyoti Mirga was against him. Jyoti Mirga was in Congress at that time. He had said that he would change the constitution. We need 400 seats. Um, besides that, there is a leader called Rahul Kashmah in Churu. He is a JAT leader. He is quite prominent in his area. Um, he was not given a ticket by BJP.
I think he was a sitting MP. So, he was not given a ticket. at the wall. Congress.[00:38:00]
Rajasthan, it's not like that. Congress won because either the candidates there were strong or their caste combination was strong. And thirdly, there were some factors that were against the BJP, like there was a lot of opposition in the Jats.
Um, um, um, um, um, um, um, [00:39:00] um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, Congress
recent assembly election.
Jat is a very big community in Rajasthan and if you look at it from the perspective of caste, Jat is the biggest caste in Rajasthan. There is an animosity between Jats and Rajputs in Rajasthan. But this time, Uh, Congress, uh, support.[00:40:00]
Dominant, dominant. Uh.
Dosa, Tonk, Sawai Madhapur. The four seats that have come from East Rajasthan are Dosa, Sawai Madhapur, Dholpur Karoli and one more seat [00:41:00] from where Congress has got one more seat. So, the role of the threshold ballot has also played a big role. At least out of the six candidates who have won, uh, Out of eight, six,
I think.
Tribal district.[00:42:00]
Basant: No,
Shivnarayan: it was the Congress committee. Bhati was fighting independently. Yes, Bhati was fighting independently. Bhajpa's Patyasik Kailash Chaudhary, who was the Union Minister, had lost to Bhati. I think this was a tricky competition. The Baap
Prateek: Party is I think, the area of Ratlam, which is adjacent to Madhya Pradesh.
It is adjacent to Ratlam. There is an MLA there too, who was present at the last assembly. I came there for the first time. And he was riding a motorcycle, and he was riding it by himself. What is the message? I covered the campaign of Rajkumar
Shivnarayan: Raut, the current MP of the Indian Tribal Party, for two days.
It was a normal campaign. There was no pomp and show. There was a cavalcade of 10 15 vehicles. I saw that they had 2 3 vehicles. Or.[00:43:00]
Of course financial, but even then.
In in search of jobs.
So,
Basant: this was the result of Maharashtra, UP and Rajasthan. Now, we are moving towards the last part of [00:44:00] our podcast because there are a lot of things, the results of the elections have come. But the result that has come, a small comment on that, that when the results came, what did you feel, what is the result?
I mean, what I
Prateek: mean to say is that[00:45:00]
We be position, be strong owner.
I think.
Basant: I'll take one more small comment from you, because you see RSS very closely, you have a connection with Madhya Pradesh, that's why. Didn't RSS get that much support in this election? Because J. P. Nadda had said on record that we don't need RSS's help now. He said something like that. He said
Prateek: that now we are capable.
Shivnarayan: So, I
Prateek: mean, I don't know how capable BJP is. I mean, obviously, it's the largest party and they do very strong work, they work very hard on the ground. But[00:46:00]
Your turn,
Basant: Shiv, on the election
Shivnarayan: results. My observation is that there is a salute to Indian voters, that you can't take Indian voters for granted.
Unpredictable[00:47:00]
result is,
uh, though, uh, in two decades. Mm. This.
especially, I think all parties are happy, has been cut to size.
Speaker 6: Hmm.[00:48:00]
Basant: Say.
Taken for granted.
They're giving communal speech in the session, that they get off on Friday. Sunday's holiday was because of the Christian missionary. You're talking about [00:49:00] such things. You, uh, are the one who gives birth to more children. If a prime minister says this thing so openly, then the last ditch worker would speak even more.
Because he has The
Prateek: prime minister who, means, like we're talking about 2014, then almost all over our country, Hmm.
Basant: What's
Prateek: up? I think a lot of people don't even know Modi. I mean, apart from Gujarat, I mean, everyone supported him for what?
Basant: Development.
Prateek: So, it's not about that at all. It's about just this one issue.
Now we hope that
Basant: the outcome you have come to and the famous dialogue of Makbul, that there is a balance of power, so there will be a balance. And there will be peace in the country. People who are around you, will also have some peace. We have to work on development.[00:50:00] [00:51:00]
Recommendation is better.
Shivnarayan: My recommendation, uh, Netflix movie is La Pata Ladies, by Kiran Rao. It's a very good movie, I think you should watch it if
Basant: you have the time. And the songs in it. What a beautiful song, I mean. It's a great
Prateek: movie. Pratik sir, what about you? It's a new season for my panchayat. The love
Basant: of Rinki and Suchiyu ji is not getting any better.
Prateek: Have you seen Vinod? Have you seen Vinod? Meet each other during meetings. Oh man, he's a great character. There's one cool scene with him. He's [00:52:00] a great character. The
Basant: scene where he goes like, Meet each other during meetings. Meet each other during meetings. You
Shivnarayan: tell me your recommendation, Basant. My
Basant: recommendation is a really nice movie.
I think it's on G5. I've watched it. here. 8:00 AM Metro
relationship.
It happens. That in a family, I mean, it happens. Everyone wants the time together. Love is a different thing but you also need time. So, that is shown very beautifully in 8am metro. The conversations happen with a stranger, and that stranger, and that stranger makes a complete imaginary story. So, it's a very beautiful film.
It's a very beautiful film. You must watch it on G5. 8am Metro. And there's a very beautiful acting too. And in that, Gulzar has written very nice lines.
Prateek: I'm going to go ahead and
Basant: get started. There are many stories [00:53:00] in the lives of journalists. Like Prateek sir said, if we get time from the next story, we will watch the film.
The election is over, the News Laundry team will again bring you exclusive ground reports like old ways. We will raise issues.
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