SAN DIEGO — The number of people falling into homelessness for the first time is outpacing the number of homeless people who find housing in San Diego County each month, according to a new report.
The Regional Task Force on Homelessness, in its first monthly report on Tuesday, said that for every 10 homeless people who found housing over the past 12 months, 13 more people became homeless for the first time.
From October 2021 to September 2022, the analysis found, 15,327 people countywide said they were experiencing homelessness for the first time, while 11,861 people who were homeless found some type of housing.
The most recent data from September shows 1,368 people became homeless, the fourth-highest of the past 12 months, and 789 people found housing, the third-lowest of the past year.
While the annual count of homeless people last February found about 8,400 individuals in San Diego County, the report shows in theory that there would have been enough housing to take everyone off the street and out of shelters had no one else become homeless over the past year.
"One of the things I think it shows is we know what to do, we just have not been able to do it at the right scope and scale," said Regional Task Force on Homelessness CEO Tamera Kohler. "And even when we have been able to do it at that scope and scale, the numbers overwhelm the system.
"There are successes every day," she said. "We just have a lot more people coming in than going out."
The report found the number of people who became homeless and found housing fluctuated each month, sometimes significantly.
October 2021 saw only 609 people housed, the lowest number in the12 months, while 1,429 people found housing in April. The number of people entering homelessness for the first time saw a low mark in July with 1,095 and a peak of 1,650 people in May.
December and March were the only months where the number of people who found housing was greater than the number of new people who became homeless.
Tamera Kohler, chief executive officer of the Regional Task Force on Homelessness, said it's unclear why the numbers fluctuate, but there would be more analysis in the future.
"We don't know what to look at until we dig into the data," she said. "I want to know what happened in those months. Why in some months we're housing quite a bit and some months we're not? What's happening there?"
On the surface, the data shows for the first time a clear indication of what cities and homeless service providers are facing. For whatever reason — addiction, job loss, health problems, domestic issues — more than 1,000 people in the county became homeless every month.
With almost 12,000 people housed over the year, the data also shows things could be worse.
"I get the question all the time, 'How many people did you house last month and how many people became homeless?'" Kohler said. "Giving a month-over-month number will at least level the narrative in a way I think is helpful. Then I think it might take a little bit out of the heat out of the opinion of some people that nothing's working."
While the number of people who found housing is encouraging, Kohler noted that many of those people backslide, and up to 25% of those who found housing return to homelessness within two years.
On an encouraging note, the report showed that finding housing for someone does not require the creation of a new housing unit or additional housing vouchers.
"The majority need a little bit of assistance or a little bit of help navigating where they may be able to return to employment or find a unit they could afford or find a family member they can be housed with," Kohler said. "The success of the system isn't just, 'We need more permanent supportive housing' or more housing vouchers."
Of the 789 people who found housing in September, only 174, about 22%, moved into permanent supportive housing. Most, 558 people, found a place they rented themselves. Others moved in with a family member or found another type of permanent housing on their own.
The report also shows that the number of people who experience homelessness countywide in one year is greater than the annual one-night count. This year's count in February found 8,427 homeless people in San Diego County, a 10% increase from the previous count in January 2020.
The number of people who received some type of service for homeless people over the past 12 months was 41,345, about five times more than the point-in-time count. Not all of those people are living outdoors or in shelters, however. According to the report, about 31% are in permanent housing and 3% were receiving assistance to prevent homelessness.
The report also will show demographics of who was housed each month. September's breakdown shows the 789 people who found housing included 87 families, 127 veterans, 178 seniors age 55 and up and 75 transitional-age youths 18-24.
September saw 26,560 active clients in homeless service programs, up 4% from August. People served included 2,341 families, 3,939 veterans, 8,107 seniors and 1,934 transitional-age youth.
The data is compiled from the Homeless Management Information System, a database that tracks the services and needs of homeless people locally and nationwide.
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