Nearly 24 hours after the simultaneous detonation of hundreds of pagers imported by the Lebanese group Hezbollah, followed by more explosions on Wednesday targeting walkie-talkies across Lebanon, in an attack attributed to Israel, political commentators and analysts were grappling with questions about the timing and what the consequences might be for the conflict on the Lebanese border.
The blasts occurred shortly after the Israeli security cabinet had approved a decision to expand the goals of the war in Gaza to include the return of tens of thousands of Israelis evacuated from towns in the north that have been damaged by rockets fired by Hezbollah. That move potentially hands the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, a casus belli if he decides to launch a ground invasion into Lebanon.
Writing for the news website Ynet on Wednesday, the Israeli journalist and political commentator Avi Issacharoff asked: “What is the purpose of such a war against Hezbollah? What are the achievable goals? Will it be possible to restore peace to the northern border and keep the activists of the Shia organisation away from the border?”
These are questions that the government “will have to ask itself, and soon”, Issacharoff wrote. “This action attributed to Israel will not lead Hezbollah to stop its offensive activity against the northern settlements, but to escalation,” he added.
Israel has a longstanding history of conducting advanced remote operations in countries deemed enemies, ranging from cyber-attacks to remote-controlled firearms aimed at individuals in drive-by shootings. It rarely comments on or accepts responsibility for such operations. Tuesday’s blasts caught most political observers off-guard.
Since October, Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas in Gaza, has traded almost daily fire with Israeli troops along the Lebanon-Israel border. Not formally declared as a war, the clashes on the Lebanon front have killed hundreds in Lebanon, mostly fighters, and dozens, including soldiers, on the Israeli side. They have also forced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border to flee their homes.
Prof Eyal Zisser, the vice-rector of Tel Aviv University and an expert on Lebanon and Arab-Israeli relations, said he struggled to see how Tuesday’s attack could help the goal of returning evacuated Israelis to their homes.
“Since 8 October … both sides, each for its own reasons, have accepted limitations – at what depth and distance from the border they launched their attacks and at what targets,” Zisser said. “But for the Israelis who were evacuated from their homes, this is a total war, and the same is true for Lebanese who were forced to leave their homes.”
An editorial in the Jerusalem Post congratulated any force “operating against the evil that is Hezbollah”, but also raised concerns about the consequences for Israeli citizens in the north.
The paper said: “There is one thing we cannot forget, however, and it is the residents of Israel’s north that have faced the brunt of the war with Hezbollah and taken hit after hit.
“While this new advancement gives Israel an advantage it is undeniable: Hezbollah will retaliate, and Israel’s north will suffer the consequences. To whoever devised yesterday’s cunning attack, good job – but always bear in mind that broad repercussions are inevitable.”
In an analysis for the Haaretz newspaper, Amos Harel said the attack had exposed Hezbollah’s weakness and humiliated its leaders, but wondered if the timing was appropriate.
“At a time when Netanyahu was promising the Israeli public until not very long ago that we are just a small step from total victory over Hamas, now it seems we are closer than ever to a large-scale war with Hezbollah, too,” Harel wrote. “The victory, on all fronts, is still nowhere on the horizon.”
So far, the only response of the Israeli ministry of defence was reportedly to move the 98th division, whose forces have been fighting until recently in the Gaza Strip, to the northern region of the country.
In addition, the IDF decided on a limited recruitment of reserve personnel to be deployed in the north, including air defence, home front command and medical corps personnel.
The 98th division will join the 36th division, which has been deployed in northern Israel for several months.
On Wednesday, Maj Gen Uri Gordin, head of the IDF’s northern command, visited a drill carried out by reservists of the IDF’s 179th brigade, which is simulating fighting in Lebanon, including manoeuvring in enemy territory.
“The mission is clear; we are determined to change the security reality as soon as possible. The commitment of the commanders and the troops here is complete, with peak readiness for any task that will be required,” Gordin said in a statement provided by the IDF.
Some opposition politicians accused Netanyahu of losing sight of the goals of the war in Gaza. The former IDF deputy chief of staff and leader of the Democrats party, Yair Golan, told Israeli radio: “If Israel is indeed responsible for the beeper attack, then this is a capability that should be used as part of an overall campaign, for example on the eve of a ground campaign.
“When such a capability is activated without any strategic context, this is a puzzling move. At the same time, and I don’t know, it could be that there was a situation where there was no choice, a situation where they had to activate this tool immediately.”
