The return to office conversation has essentially reached its conclusion. That’s what Stanford economist Nick Bloom, who leads the WFH Research group that has documented the evolution of flexible work since early 2020, told Fortune in a recent phone interview.
We’re holding stable at working from home 28% of the time. Don’t expect that number to tick much higher anytime soon. (Sorry, bosses.) That is, until 2026, when remote work will put the final nail in the coffin—and an end to the debate.
Bloom’s prediction draws on data from the Census Bureau, his own firm’s regular Survey of Working Arrangements, and office occupancy data, all of which have shown slowly diminishing rates of remote work between 2020 and 2022. But that downward trend came to a stop this year, leaving that 28% WFH figure “pancake flat.”
But then will come 2026. From there onwards, Bloom, who has studied remote work for two decades, foresees “slowly rising” rates of remote work, mostly driven by technological advancements. He calls it the Nike Swoosh effect, and it’s exactly the opposite of what most CEOs predict. (Nearly two-thirds of chief executive respondents to a recent KPMG survey said they believe 2026 will see a full office return.)
“2023 turned out to be the year of stabilization—and the end of the return to the office,” he told Fortune on Wednesday. “It wasn’t obvious to me that that would be the case, actually; I’ve been surprised by how WFH rates have stabilized.”
Because the media is filled to the brim with stories of a rumored return-to-office overhaul, people may have expected workers to file back en masse this year. “Outrage and shock sells more than anything else, and a full return to office would be the biggest, most shocking thing,” he said. “But I talk to hundreds and hundreds of executives, and they mostly want hybrid.”
It’s no wonder, then, that a hybrid arrangement is what’s shaken out.
“The CEOs—the very head figures—are men in their 50s who are more keen on a full return,” he went on. That’s because their experience of the office differs widely from everyone else’s. “They breathe different air. They’re super successful and hard-working, and they have tens of millions of dollars invested in their companies. For them, the office is appealing, because their jokes are funny and everyone’s nice to them.”
That’s created a tension where the CEO wonders aloud why no one else wants to come into work, because it’s so enjoyable for them. Bloom’s answer: For most people, work is just work, not the pinnacle of their life’s purpose. It can be done anywhere.
When it’s up to workers, they’re already remote
Another reason to believe Bloom’s prediction will eventually win out: It’s what independent contractors and self-employed people have long tended towards.
“The actions people take themselves is the most telling thing,” Bloom said. “In late 2022, I would’ve said that by now, 24% or 25% of days would be spent remotely—now it’s about 28%, which doesn’t sound like much of a difference, but it’s about a quarter higher.”
Bloom compared public perception of remote work as similar to the current state of the stock market. “We continue to be surprised how strong the stock market is, as well as how high levels of remote work are,” he said. “Strong economic growth tells us that working from home isn’t the problem you think it is, and it means labor markets are tight, so it’s hard for employers to force workers in.”
‘This is not a match RTO is winning’
Bloom has maintained this loose prediction—stable remote work rates, with an eventual upwards creep—for some time.
“The census data, Kastle [office occupancy data], it’s flat as a pancake,” Bloom said in August in a webinar hosted by software firm Scoop. “We’re not heading into the office, but we’re not heading out either. It is completely level.”
Indeed, a glance at this year’s weekly data from building security and consulting firm Kastle found that—save for New Year’s, July 4th, and Thanksgiving week, which yanked office occupancy into the 30-percent range—occupancy this year has stayed between 46 to 50.5% range. That’s across the ten largest major metro areas in the U.S.
“It feels like the [score of the] last three years has been, Work from home—three; return to office—zero,” Bloom said in August. “This is not a match that RTO is winning.” His words proved prescient; despite ample Labor Day return-to-office mandates and deadlines, offices across the country stayed completely level at 47% full.
“We can debate how [real the plans are] in theory versus practice,” Bloom added. “I talk to literally hundreds of firms and managers, and some are coming in. Some are going out. On average, they’re about flat.”
