Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin said it “remains to be seen” whether he will be the next Taoiseach, as he predicted an outperformance of an exit poll which placed his party closely trailing in third.
Mr Martin was comfortably elected on the first count after topping the poll in the Cork South Central constituency, and was hoisted into the air by his sons Cillian and Micheal Aodh.
The exit poll put his party on 19.5%, behind its Civil War rival-turned coalition partner Fine Gael at 21%, and the largest opposition party Sinn Fein at 21.1%.
Speaking immediately after his election, a jubilant Mr Martin predicted: “It transpires that we’ll probably exceed that exit poll prediction above the margin of error [of 1.4%] – we could be looking at 21.9% now.”
There’s going to be a lot of twists and turns
He said the day following the poll had been a “rollercoaster”, reflecting that the party had been “left wondering ‘where were we?'” after the exit poll.
Asked about that possibility he would become Taoiseach as the leader of the largest party in the next coalition, he told reporters he was now awaiting the national results – which could take days to finalise.
He added: “That remains to be seen, obviously, in terms of the results the length and breadth of the country.”
He further warned that the election remains “extraordinarily competitive” and added: “There’s going to be a lot of twists and turns.”
Mr Martin thanked the people of Cork South Central for re-electing him, adding that he feels a “huge sense of responsibility”.
“I will also be grateful to them for enabling me to have the honour of representing them in Dail Eireann – that is my first task, a representative of Cork South Central and advance the interests of Cork more generally.”
He also thanked his family, saying: “I want to thank my wife Mary who really worked night and day when I was around the country, leading the campaign with Micheal Aodh and Aoibhe and Cillian.”
Speculation has begun on what parties or independents may join with Fianna Fail – and Fine Gael – in a future coalition.
Both those parties have ruled out a coalition with Sinn Fein.
Turning to that process of government formation, he said he would like to see that happen faster than in 2020 – when it took several months.
That process resulted in Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, two parties forged from opposing sides of Ireland’s Civil War of the 1920s, agreeing to set aside almost a century of animosity and share power.
The Greens joined as a junior partner, but early indications showed the party could be facing an electoral wipeout.
Mr Martin said: The Greens, to their credit, didn’t buckle over the four and a half years.
“Being in government can be difficult for any political party.
Look, I’m not going to go on about polls but I would have had a better evening last night if they had been more accurate
“It is to the credit of the Greens that they went into government. We had challenges, we had different priorities of three political parties, but this government went full term, and I think Ireland was for the better for that.”
Taking the previous formation talks into consideration, Mr Martin predicted the future will involve very difficult negotiations between parties: “It will be challenging. This is not easy.”
He said there has to be “real clarity” around a programme for government before forming a coalition.
Asked how important it is to form a government before the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, Mr Martin said: “I think we have to… to be honest with you, in the best interests of Ireland in the first instance.”
Fianna Fail had campaigned on a message of stable financial management in the face of potential economic shocks caused by policy decisions from the next US administration.
Asked why he felt Fianna Fail was underestimated in the polls, he said: “Look, I’m not going to go on about polls but I would have had a better evening last night if they had been more accurate.”
He added: “I mean the polls give Fianna Fail heart attacks all the time.”
