With nearly two thirds of the Premier League season completed, there is every chance of the title, top four and relegation battles all going down to the wire.
Arsenal are just two points clear of title rivals Manchester City ahead of their midweek game in hand against Everton. The Gunners kept Leicester at arm's length over the weekend to ensure they stayed top, with City responding by winning comfortably at Bournemouth.
Manchester United aren't entirely out of the running, while several teams - including the Newcastle side beaten by Ten Hag's men in the Carabao Cup final on Sunday - are battling it out for fourth. At the bottom, meanwhile, several sides remain at risk of the drop with just four points separating the teams in 13th and 19th.
After the dust settled on the latest drama, a simulation from @UnderThePitch looked at the 20 Premier League teams' most likely finishing position. To do this, they simulated each of the remaining league games some 800 times to determine the most likely results and then the most likely finishing positions, which Mirror Football has laid out below.
Title race
With two thirds of the games yet to play, and a close-run race at the top, it is understandable that no team has a higher than 60% chance of finishing in any given position. However, the anticipated positions for Arsenal and Manchester City come with some of the highest percentage chances of the whole simulation.
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Arsenal have been given a 53.44% chance of lifting the title at the end of the season, and a 39.44% chance of finishing second. For Manchester City, meanwhile, the numbers are 44.15% and 47.33% respectively.
Manchester United's form since the World Cup has lifted them closer to the top two, but they are still given just a 2.42% likelihood of winning the whole thing. One thing that recent form has done is all but lock up a top-four finish, with third spot (51.91%) the most likely outcome.
Top Four
With three of the top four spots essentially locked up, at least according to these simulations, we're in line for a tense battle for the final Champions League place. At least two members of last season's top four could miss out, and that number could yet end up as three.
Newcastle United were third as recently as January 21, but their chances of a top four finish are just over one in three (1.15% second, 10.43% third, 23.16% fourth). Tottenham now look the most likely to claim fourth, with a 31.81% chance of repeating their finish from last season, while third (18.96%) and second (1.27%) remain possible for Antonio Conte's men.
Liverpool (7.51% combined) could yet finish second, third or fourth, with the likes of Brighton (11.71%), Brentford (4.96%), Fulham (2.67%) and Aston Villa (0.38%) also in the mix. However, Chelsea's defeat at Spurs on Sunday appears to spell the end of their slim hopes of Champions League qualification through their league finish.
Relegation
For a second successive week, victories for struggling sides changed the makeup of the bottom three. This time it was West Ham and Leeds clambering out of immediate trouble, while Bournemouth and Everton dropped back below the dotted line with defeats.
Also losing over the weekend were Southampton, with their defeat at Elland Road leaving their chances of relegation sitting at around 70% and their chances of finishing dead last sitting at 34.48%. Saint boss Ruben Selles isn't the only manager to take over after success as a caretaker, but Bournemouth's Gary O'Neil has a similar challenge with the Cherries 70.1% to go down and 30.53% to take 20th spot.
Everton are currently just a point away from safety, and Sean Dyche's side are close to 50:50 to stay up (17.30% 18th, 17.56% 19th, 16.92% 20th). Fellow strugglers Leeds (27.6% to go down), West Ham (25.06%), Wolves (16.16%) and Nottingham Forest (25.44%) are not out of the woods either, while Leicester and Crystal Palace have single-figure chances of dropping down to the second tier.
