Relegation precedent Leeds United can take solace from…

Relegation precedent Leeds United can take solace from as battle against the drop intensifies

Leeds United's situation may appear precarious, but history shows that teams in far worse positions have avoided the drop. Jesse Marsch’s side currently sit 14th in the table, on just 17 points as we reach the halfway point of the season.

They have won only four of their 18 games, drawing five and losing nine. But with the bottom seven clubs separated by just two points, there is plenty of time for countless twists and turns in this year’s relegation battle.

Leeds may not be in the drop zone at present, but are only two points above the bottom three heading into Sunday’s vital clash with Brentford at Elland Road.

Lose that and they could well find themselves plummeting down the table if other results go against them. But despite their poor start to the campaign, Leeds fans will be encouraged by how many teams have maintained their Premier League status from far worse positions in recent years.

Over the last ten seasons, there have been seven occasions where teams have survived while being on 15 points or fewer at the halfway stage: Newcastle (11 in 2021/22), Burnley (12 in 2018/19), Swansea City (12 in 2016/17), Sunderland twice (12 in 2015/16 and 14 in 2013/14), Leicester City (13 in 2014/15) and West Ham (15 in 2013/14).

During that period, the average points required to guarantee safety without relying on goal difference has been 34.9, while 17th placed finishers have averaged 37.6 points.

The club with the lowest points tally at this stage of the season to survive is Newcastle United. This time last season they were 19th in the league on 11 points, just one place above the bottom, but went on to finish 11th on 49 points.

While not many clubs will be as lucky as Newcastle were in securing wealthy new owners to bail them out of trouble, Burnley, Swansea and Sunderland have shown that a great back end to the season can still ensure safety on a tight budget.

However, Newcastle fans would also warn relegation-threatened clubs not to rest on their laurels once they reach the 35-point average needed for safety.

While the mythical 40 points spoken about to guarantee safety has not been required for many years, Newcastle were themselves relegated in 2016 with a tally of 37 points, the highest for a relegated side in the past decade.

Relegation precedent Leeds United can take solace from as battle against the drop intensifies

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