When I left home, my parents were sad to see me go. But they understood the world — or at least a damp flat in Bethnal Green situated above a pie and mash shop — awaited. Ten years on, when I joked about moving back, my mum deadpanned: “We’d love to have you. But for no more than a week.”I recalled this rather hurtful memory yesterday when Keir Starmer restated Labour policy: that there is “no case for rejoining” the European Union.
For the dismayed, consider this thought experiment in which I grant you two wishes. First, a government prepared to offer such a referendum, and second, a poll lead for rejoin. My friends, I’d now like to introduce you to Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union.
Perhaps the biggest problem the UK faced in negotiating its exit from the EU was time. Article 50 gives a departing member state a ludicrously short two years in which to settle up. Article 49, which establishes how a country can join, suffers from the opposite problem. Just ask Turkey, declared a candidate country in 1999.
The next difficulty is, what exactly are we rejoining? As an applicant, the UK would be in a weak position to demand its rebate, or the opt-out from monetary union, ever-closer union, and Schengen. All these would make a rejoin referendum far harder to win than the original.
Then there is divergence. If, in the intervening years, the UK has developed different regulatory frameworks from the EU, say on AI or life sciences, in the hope of securing benefits of Brexit, that would make rejoining more difficult still.
Finally, and most importantly, there is the EU itself. Even if I grant a third wish — that the referendum is won — Britain must have its application approved unanimously by each member state. As Harolds Macmillan and Wilson found, that may prove tricky.
Would France, an advocate for European strategic autonomy, welcome Atlanticist Britain? Would Italy, promoted to numero tre, accept a demotion? As for the Germans, they didn’t ride to our rescue on Brexit — why would they on Brentry?
So sure, let’s debate the advantages of dynamic alignment and participation in Horizon Europe. But rejoining? I’m more likely to be allowed back home.
Do you think the UK should rejoin the EU? Let us know in the comments below.
