Newcastle, Lake Macquarie and the Hunter could fall 10,000 homes short of the state government's five-year housing target.
If the region is to have any chance of bridging the shortfall, experts say shovel-ready land must be released faster and the region must embrace high-density housing.
As part of the National Housing Accord, NSW has committed to building 75,000 homes a year for the next five years.
Based on its population, Newcastle, Lake Macquarie and the Hunter must build 6400 houses a year to fulfil its share of the state's target.
However, the region is delivering less than 4000 new homes annually on average over the last 5 years.
The Housing Industry Association predicts that figure will jump to 4600 in 2024, which still leaves a significant shortfall.
HIA Hunter director Craig Jennion said shortfall could be even higher because the greater Newcastle region regularly outperforms its predicted population growth.
To close the gap between housing supply and demand, Mr Jennion said the community had to become comfortable with planning reforms that allowed higher-density living in traditionally low-density areas.
"We need to see a lot more higher density in existing suburbs and that takes a bit of change in community expectations," he said.
"If we continue to say no high-density housing, there will be no affordable housing close to friends and family for the next generation."
Urban Development Institute of Australia believes the Hunter has the capacity to take on a more ambitious share of the Housing Accord target.
The organisation says the Lower Hunter, which includes the Port Stephens, should aim for 7000 new homes a year given it has thousands of greenfield sites already zoned for housing.
However, green tape and poor planning has curbed up to 15,000 sites.
"The fastest way to deliver more housing in the short term is to unlock our currently zoned greenfield land by delivering infrastructure and prioritising a strategic approach to conservation," a UDIA spokesperson said.
"The Lower Hunter already has zoned land that can deliver over 30,000 new homes, but half of those can't come to market because of incomplete planning and under-investment in the Hunter's state road network, and many are also constrained by new biodiversity requirements."
Mr Jennion said excessive local government development requirements could slow down new projects.
"Councils need to recognise that every time they add additional requirements, it makes housing developments more expensive and developers are more likely to look elsewhere," he said.
The Newcastle Herald recently revealed Broadmedow could accommodate 16,600 new homes under a redevelopment strategy being prepared by Newcastle council and the NSW government.
The preferred scenario would include high-density apartments on the site of the existing Newcastle Entertainment Centre and around Broadmeadow Station.
UDIA also backed high-density housing as a medium-to-long term solution for the Hunter.
"The recent planning announcements focused on higher density and those efforts could add to our housing capacity in the medium term," the UDIA spokesperson said.
"Those announcements are firm statements of intent from the NSW Government to deliver more homes, and they put the Lower Hunter squarely on the radar as a key region where more homes should be prioritised."
