If a general election were held today, Reform UK would be on course to win the most seats, but no party would be close to an overall majority, a new poll suggests.
Nigel Farage’s party would win 180 seats, with the Tories and Labour on 165 seats each, according to the More in Common survey of 16,000 voters. Sir Keir Starmer’s party would achieve an even worse result than it sustained under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, losing 246 seats, the modelling claims.
Surveys conducted years away from a general election are unlikely to represent anything close to its result, because there is no way of predicting what the most important issues will be come polling day. Reform currently has just four MPs, having already lost one of the five elected last year.
But More in Common director Luke Tryl said the survey shows that “British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level”.
The pollster warned that Sir Keir’s general election coalition has splintered right and left, with 10 cabinet ministers predicted to lose their seats as a result and major losses expected in the so-called red wall, Scotland, and the South Wales valleys.
Among those who could lose their seats include deputy PM Angela Rayner, home secretary Yvette Cooper, defence secretary John Healey, energy secretary Ed Miliband, and health secretary Wes Streeting, the poll suggests.
With just weeks before Reform faces its first major test since July’s election, the poll, however speculative, will be a boost to Mr Farage’s ambitions.
“Nigel Farage’s Reform UK emerge as the biggest winners of this parliament so far, with our model suggesting they could well become the largest party in parliament, something almost unthinkable a year ago,” Mr Tryl said.
“Though the party remains a long way from being able to secure a majority, it is clear Reform’s momentum is real, and the question is whether their new level of support represents the start of a path to government or a ceiling that Farage’s polarising brand finds hard to overcome.
“Labour, meanwhile, having secured a historic victory, now find themselves on the wrong side of a disillusioned electorate frustrated at the slow pace of change and some of the government’s early missteps.”
More in Common’s constituency-level poll also put Reform on course to narrowly take the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, following the departure of its former Labour MP Mike Amesbury after he punched a constituent.
Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher warned that Labour has had “one of the shortest political honeymoons” and that it will struggle to hold off Reform in Runcorn.
