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Reform voters are outliers who have “starkly” differently views about immigration than the rest of the population, according to new research.
They are the only group where most of those surveyed feel no sympathy for people making the dangerous Channel crossing in small boats and who oppose resettlement schemes like Homes for Ukraine.
And they are also the only group who feel migration is not talked about enough and should be the number one priority for the government, the Immigration Attitudes Tracker from British Future and pollster Ipsos shows.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said: “Reform UK and Nigel Farage provide a political voice for the section of the public with the toughest views on immigration – but to say they speak for the British public on the issue would simply be mistaken. Most people don’t share Nigel Farage’s views and don’t trust him when he talks about immigration.
“Reform voters are outliers on immigration: they think differently to the majority of the public. Winning back their votes is a challenge for the Conservative Party, but a risk too.”
Jim Blagden of pollsters More in Common said Reform’s vote split into two camps - disillusioned populists and the radical right.
Most Reform voters are disillusioned populists, he said, a group that believes immigration brings more negatives than positives. “But they think that violence against refugees is never justified and that the recent riots are best described as racist thuggery,” he added.
“But a significant minority are on the radical right… 22 per cent think the police were too harsh on the rioters. And 17per cent think violent protests outside refugee accommodation are justified.
“The challenge for the Conservatives as they select a new party leader is to win back the more mainstream Reform voters who want lower immigration without indulging the more fringe politics of the radical right.”
The British Future/Ipsos tracker found Reform UK was trusted by just over a third, 34 per cent, of people to have the right policies on immigration. But it was distrusted on the issue by more than half, 52 per cent.
That is ahead of the Tories who were trusted by 24 per cent and distrusted by 67 per cent, while Labour was on similar numbers as Reform, trusted by 36 per cent distrusted by 50 per cent.
Just one third of the public, 33 per cent, say they trust Reform leader Nigel Farage when he talks about immigration.
And while Reform is trusted on immigration by half of 2024 Conservative voters, 49 per cent, it is but distrusted by 38 per cent , creating possible problems for a Tory party keen to win back Reform voters without repelling current Conservatives.
Gideon Skinner, from Ipsos, said that Reform voters were “very unhappy” with the way the last Conservative Government handled the issue. “However, they are the most negative – and most focused – group on the topic among a polarised public where there a range of other views that place more emphasis on control and the need for immigration in certain sectors as much as deterrence to get numbers down.”
