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The National (Scotland)
The National (Scotland)
National
Laura Pollock

Reform UK predicted to win Westminster majority in major UK-wide poll

A MAJOR polling company has predicted Reform UK to win a Westminster majority in a new poll.

Nigel Farage’s party beat the Labour Party in a Find Out Now voting intention poll published on Thursday.

It comes just more than a week after YouGov also put Reform ahead for the first time ever. The latest poll means Farage's party has risen seven points since November.

The poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party.

It showed that if a General Election were held tomorrow, 29% of UK voters would choose Reform, 23% chose Labour and 21% would vote for the Tories.

The UK-wide poll also puts the LibDems on 12% and Greens on 9%.

This would give Reform UK a narrow majority with 333 seats, and Labour would plummet to 88, losing 323 of their current MPs.

The Tories would drop to fourth largest party with 68 seats and the LibDems on 78 seats.

The SNP would also gain 34 seats, bringing their total up to 43. Greens would have five and Plaid Cymru would keep their four.

Find Out Now analysis stated Reform UK were shown as "retaining almost all of their 2024 GE support" which is "far more than any other party".

The party was also predicted as "winning over a quarter of 2024 GE Conservative voters, and winning half (50%) of people who didn’t vote in 2024 but say they would “definitely vote” this time."

The analysis concluded: "They have not dropped in support over any of our voting intention polls since November, with their rise seemingly mainly at the expense of the Conservatives.

"Notably, Labour support has remained steady – fluctuating around 25% with no significant changes since November."

The poll may create worry for Scottish parties after it was revealed Farage will front Reform UK’s Scottish Parliament election campaign in 2026.

A sample from Scotland shows Reform gaining 6% of those who voted for the SNP in the 2024 General Election.

However, the SNP remain in the lead in Scotland with 34% and Reform on 25%.

Farage is set to go head-to-head with First Minister John Swinney and Scottish party leaders Anas Sarwar and Russell Findlay in the TV debates during the campaign.

The party is also more popular with males, 32%, than females, 26%, and those in the 65-75 age bracket.

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