In a dramatic political turn, Reform UK appears set to gain a sixth MP as an “inevitable” by-election in Runcorn & Helsby looms following the conviction of disgraced Labour MP Mike Amesbury. The by-election, now seen as unavoidable, could hand Nigel Farage’s party a key win in a constituency that has long been a Labour stronghold.
Top pollster Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, warned of the changing electoral dynamics in the area. Speaking to GB News, he explained, “The dynamics of the now inevitable by-election – low turnout, national Government unpopular, disgraced former MP and Reform already second – mean, despite the big Labour majority, Reform would be disappointed not to win given their current polling/momentum.”
These factors, combined with a climate of national discontent with the current Government, have bolstered Reform UK’s prospects in what has been a turbulent period for traditional party loyalties.
The pressure is mounting on Amesbury to resign from the Commons in order to trigger the by-election, which the party is confident of winning. In the 2024 General Election, Reform UK secured 7,662 votes—an 18.1% share—finishing ahead of the Conservatives, who received 6,756 votes. Should Amesbury refuse to step down voluntarily, a by-election could still be forced if 10% of the constituency’s voters sign a petition demanding one.
Amesbury’s downfall comes after he pleaded guilty in January to the brutal assault of 45-year-old Paul Fellows on Main Street in Frodsham, Cheshire, during the early hours of October 26. The court heard that Amesbury, who had been drinking, encountered Mr Fellows at a taxi rank where the man was raising concerns about a local bridge closure.
In the ensuing altercation, Amesbury stepped toward Mr Fellows and punched him in the face. During the hearing, he shouted, “Don’t you ever threaten me again. You won’t threaten the MP ever again will you? Deputy Chief Magistrate Tan Ikram noted that Amesbury’s actions were fueled by “anger and loss of emotional control.”
Reform UK has wasted no time in calling for decisive action. Party Chairman Zia Yusuf stated,
“Today Mike Amesbury has been sentenced to 10 weeks in prison. The great people of Runcorn deserve far better than waiting six weeks for a recall petition to take place. We call on Mike Amesbury to do the honourable thing and resign immediately so a by-election can be held.”
“The Labour Party, meanwhile, has acknowledged that the constituency deserves fresh representation following the sentencing. A Labour spokesman added, “The Labour Party took swift action following Mike Amesbury’s completely unacceptable actions and he is no longer a Labour MP or a member of the Labour Party.”
“It is right that Mr Amesbury pleaded guilty and has now been sentenced. Local residents in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency deserved better and we look forward to them getting the representation they deserve in the future with a new Labour MP.”
As the political dust settles, all eyes remain on Runcorn & Helsby where the upcoming by-election could redefine local political allegiances and serve as a bellwether for national sentiment.
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