REFORM UK are on course for a major upset in an upcoming by-election, according to the latest poll.
The first poll of the Runcorn and Helsby constituency since MP Mike Amesbury was convicted of attacking a constituent forecasts that Nigel Farage’s party will take the seat from Labour.
It comes despite an ongoing chaotic civil war within Reform after the party reported one of its own MPs to the police over bullying allegations.
Backbencher Rupert Lowe has been stripped of the party whip amid an internal investigation of bullying complaints made against him by two female members of staff.
He was reported to police after allegedly making threats of violence against party chair Zia Yusuf, who Lowe has called on to step down.
Farage has also accused the MP of pushing a minister in Parliament, resulting in the Serjeant at Arms having to “step in to calm things down”.
But the Lord Ashcroft poll has found that Reform is likely to pick up 40 per cent of the vote in the by-election, with Labour on 35 per cent – perhaps owing to Keir Starmer’s plunge in popularity.
In July’s General Election, Amesbury won the seat for Labour with 22,358 votes, with Reform UK second on 7662.
Reform picked up five MPs in total, but polls since the turn of the year have shown them leading Labour and the Tories in vote share.
