Reform UK would be on course to win most seats with no party close to an overall majority if an election were held imminently, a new poll suggests.
Labour could lose 246 MPs, including 10 Cabinet ministers, with major losses in the so-called red wall, Scotland and the Welsh Valleys, according to the More in Common survey.
Based on polling of more than 16,000 people, the data suggests a potential fracturing of the vote that could reshape the electoral map, with Labour’s support splintering left and right.
New @Moreincommon_ MRP in @thetimes from polling of over 16,000 people finds a highly fragmented and divided electorate. It estimates Reform UK as the largest party with 180 seats, followed by Labour & the Tories on 165 seats each, but hundreds of seats on a knife edge. pic.twitter.com/pIZZaTRUgM
— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) April 19, 2025
Reform would win 180 seats on an implied vote share of 23.7%, with the Tories and Labour tied on 165 seats each at 24.3% and 24.5% respectively, according to the modelling.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband are among those who could lose to candidates from Nigel Farage’s party, More in Common said.
The model also suggests an Independent gain in Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s London seat of Ilford North.
Surveys conducted years away from a general election are unlikely to represent anything close to its result because there is no way of predicting what the most important issues will be come polling day.
The next general election is expected to be held no later than August 2029.
But More in Common director Luke Tryl said the data suggests that the voter coalition behind Labour’s landslide victory last summer has disintegrated.
“We are a long way from a general election and trying to predict the result is a fool’s errand, but what we can say for certain is that as of today British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level,” he said.
“The coalition for change that elected Keir Starmer’s Government has splintered right and left.
“Labour… having secured a historic victory now find themselves on the wrong side of a disillusioned electorate frustrated at the slow pace of change and some of the Government’s early missteps.”
May’s local elections will show the extent to which Reform’s opinion poll momentum translates into real support at the ballot box, though not everyone votes the same way in these contests as they would in general election.
A by-election in the North West seat of Runcorn and Helsby vacated by former MP Mike Amesbury will also be closely fought by Labour and Reform.
With an eye on drawing support from the ruling party’s red wall heartlands, Mr Farage has recently called for British Steel to be nationalised and courted trade unions with a promise to “reindustrialise Britain”.
In an interview with the Sunday Times, the party leader said: “If we are going to reindustrialise Britain, then we have to realise that the trade unions and relationships with them are a very important part of it.”
Steelworkers’ unions have backed Government action to take control of British Steel to prevent its blast furnaces from shutting down after talks with its Chinese owners, Jingye, broke down.
The Labour administration has also said nationalisation is the likely outcome for the company but stressed the importance of finding a private sector partner because of the scale of capital required for steel transformation.
