Reform and Labour tied at the top ahead of local…

Reform and Labour tied at the top ahead of local elections, poll shows

Reform are tied with Labour leaving the Conservatives lagging behind a week before the local elections, national voting intention polling shows.

Britons will go to the polls on Thursday (1 May) when 1,641 council seats and six mayoral ones are up for grabs.

A parliamentary by-election is also taking place in Runcorn and Helsby on the same day after former Labour MP Mike Amesbury stood down following his conviction for punching a constituent.

This will be the first election since Labour’s landslide victory at the 2024 local and parliamentary elections, when the Tories lost 251 seats in the Commons.

The majority - 996 - of the council seats being contested this time are held by the Conservatives, who stand to lose the most in next week’s election.

Now, national voting intention polls show Reform have risen to tie with Labour - a major win for Reform and a further blow to the Tories.

Both Labour and Reform hold 25 per cent of national voting intention, according to Techne’s latest tracker poll for The Independent, which samples around 1,600 people each week.

Since Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government took over, Labour have seen a decline in support. The Conservatives too have been unable to keep momentum in opposition, and have fallen to 21 per cent support.

Meanwhile Reform, which won an unprecedented 14.3 per cent of the vote in the July general election, has continued to make steady gains, overtaking the Tories in January, and now sitting alongside Labour at the top.

It is important to note, however, that national voting intention polls do not tend to accurately reflect the picture at local elections, but it can provide a useful snapshot of political sentiment.

For some voters, political parties play little part in their choice for local councillors; while others might vote solely based on party affiliation.

There are around 17,000 local councillors in England, according to government data; with 2,660 council seats chosen in last year’s election, and 1,641 up for grabs next week.

These local elections will span 23 local authorities in England, shown on the map below.

Some six in ten seats up for grabs (996 out of 1,641) are currently held by the Conservatives, who are trailing behind Reform and Labour nationally.

The opposition party is therefore most at risk of losing seats; with Tory leader Kemi Badenoch just this week admitting that the local elections are “going to be very difficult”.

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has only gains to make, as it holds none of the existing seats.

Conservative peer and pollster Lord Hayward has predicted that the right-wing party could win between 400 and 450 of those being contested.

Sir Keir’s party may see more modest gains by comparison, with Lord Hayward predicting 375 to 425 seats, up from the 287 it already holds.

Mayoral and by-election

Four metro-mayors will be elected next week, in Cambridge and Peterborough, West of England, Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire. Borough mayors are also running in Doncaster and North Tyneside.