REFORM UK are neck and neck with Labour in a new poll – boosting expectations Nigel Farage’s party may cement its status as a major Westminster player at the next General Election.
Farage’s party were tied for first place with Labour on 25% of the vote, according to polling by Find Out Now.
The firm’s voting intention tracker set up at the end of November also gave the Tories their worst showing, down seven points to just 20%.
Reform UK’s gains appear to have come partly from the declining popularity of the Conservatives, with pollsters saying Labour’s support has remained “relatively steady”.
In an article explaining the results, Find Out Now’s head of research Tyron Surmon said: “Over the course of our weekly voting intention series, Labour have remained relatively steady, not losing support since November.
“The main change has been the growth of Reform UK (from 22% to 25%) and concurrent decline in Conservative support, the main driver of this being Conservative switchers – up to a quarter (24%) of 2024 [General Election] Conservative voters now saying they’d vote for Reform UK, compared to 14% in November and early December.”
The findings boost speculation that Farage may be on his way to No 10 following the next election, if his support becomes more widespread throughout England and Wales.
A projection by the polling analyst Twitter/X account Stats for Lefties predicted a 25% result for Reform would give them 209 seats, just ahead of Labour on 203, with the Tories on just 82.
However, Electoral Calculus projections put Labour on 269 seats, with Reform UK behind on 149. The Tories were on 101.
Find Out Now's research was carried out on January 8, making it the first polling on Reform’s prospects since Farage’s public falling out with Twitter/X owner Elon Musk.
The tech billionaire sent shockwaves through UK politics this week by leading demands – picked up both by Reform and the Tories – for a national inquiry into the grooming gangs scandal.
But Musk has also called for Farage to be replaced as Reform leader, apparently after the Clacton MP publicly disagreed with the entrepreneur’s calls for far-right thug Tommy Robinson to be freed from prison.
