WASHINGTON — For many months, Mitch McConnell expressed optimism about the favorable political conditions that could deliver Senate control to Republicans this November.
Now, with just under three months from Election Day, he’s curbing his enthusiasm.
The Senate GOP leader isn’t amplifying talk of a “red wave” that’s being hyped by many on the right. In fact, he’s acknowledging Democrats could very well hold on to their slim majority.
“We’re likely to have a very, very close Senate still,” he told Fox News last week, “with either us up slightly or the Democrats up slightly.”
McConnell largely avoided being saddled with the most politically risky and abrasive candidates of the cycle: Mo Brooks, a longtime congressional antagonist, lost his bid in Alabama; Eric Greitens, who called McConnell “a disgusting coward,” was easily defeated in Missouri.
But the slate of nominees who have emerged from the primary season – most with former President Donald Trump’s backing – have proven to carry their own set of problems connecting with voters in their respective states. And fresh Democratic enthusiasm – bolstered by the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling and passage of a massive climate bill geared to arrest carbon emissions – has handed the party reasons to turn out.
“McConnell put it the best way, it’s a toss up. If you’re in leadership in the Senate, you should be disappointed in the candidate selection,” said Tony Fratto, a deputy White House press secretary in the Bush administration. “It’s hard to see where they have crossover appeal beyond the Trump base…You’re asking establishment Republicans to swallow hard, you’ve got to go out and get independents and that makes it challenging.”
With a 50-50 Senate and a half dozen highly competitive races, every race on the map is a potential majority maker.
In Pennsylvania, a premiere battleground prized by both parties, the match-up between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz was supposed to be one of the most highly competitive contests in the country. Instead, there’s a feeling among some Washington Republicans that the race is already close to in-the-bag for Democrats, amounting to a net pick-up of the GOP held seat.
“Never say never but I think it’s pretty clear (Dave) McCormick would’ve been a better general election candidate than Dr. Oz,” Fratto said. “I think you have to put that in the Democrats column right now unless something changes. It’s hard to see what’s going to turn it around.”
In Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker, the former N.F.L. star running back, has struggled fielding questions in media interviews, leaving some to wonder if he’s capable of successfully debating Sen. Raphael Warnock.
“Herschel Walker does not look like he’s ready for primetime,” longtime Republican pollster Whit Ayers told Bill Kristol on his podcast last week.
Saxby Chambliss, the former GOP senator from Georgia, acknowledged Walker’s challenges but said the first-time candidate could improve his fortunes by training his message against Warnock’s voting record.
“I know and understand that there are a lot of people who are questioning his abilities to delve into the issues and some of his issues in the past have dogged him a little bit,” Chambliss said. “He’s not a sophisticated debater ... It will not be a fun exercise for Herschel but he needs to tell people exactly what he stands for. And I am 100% confident he’s more in line with the mainstream of Georgians than is Rev. Warnock.”
Republican polling shows newly minted GOP nominee Blake Masters is trailing Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona’s Senate race, where the Democratic incumbent holds an enormous cash advantage. Masters is another first-time candidate whose abilities will soon earn scrutiny.
Nevada may offer Republicans their best chance to flip a seat, with Adam Laxalt attempting to peel a significant portion of Hispanic voters away from Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the Senate’s first Latina.
But Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin also has to overcome low approval ratings to defend his seat against Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes, the state’s lieutenant governor. What’s more, the GOP is being forced to invest in Ohio to help lift J.D. Vance, who is toiling in a margin-of-error race with Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan. Ohio should be a safe Republican seat, but Vance has had difficulty uniting Republicans.
There isn’t a single Democratic Senate seat that looks like it’s trending toward Republicans at this point. In New Hampshire, where another vulnerable Democratic incumbent, Maggie Hassan, faces re-election, Republicans still have another month before their primary.
“This is why McConnell is starting to sort of warn people that they may not win the Senate,” said Simon Rosenberg, a longtime Democratic strategist. “We’re likely to win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in my view … And I don’t know that we’re going to lose any of our races.”
On the other hand, there’s still plenty of time for the winds to change yet again. Wave elections usually don’t begin to break heavily until the fall, when voters return from summer vacations and tune back into political news.
And the environment remains rough for the party that has complete control of the federal government. Americans remain pessimistic about the economy; the gross domestic product just contracted for the second consecutive quarter. Even as gas prices tick down, inflation remains elevated on a host of products and services while household debt continues to rise.
Perhaps most crucially, President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains dreadfully low – a Monmouth University poll this week measured it at just 38% – acting as a burdensome weight on the back of Democratic candidates.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has been outwardly more confident than McConnell, declaring in May Republicans would “win more than enough seats” to capture the majority in the lower chamber. Senate races, on the other hand, are driven by individual candidacies.
Having weathered numerous tumultuous political climates, McConnell is characteristically cautious about getting out over his skis regarding political prognostications. He’s seen a cycle go sideways before and knows there’s ample time for more twists and turns.
“It is Mitch McConnell’s job and the senatorial committee’s job to every once in awhile say, ‘This is going to be a landslide, join us’, and then say, ‘Damn it’s close, send money.’” said Grover Norquist, the conservative tax reduction advocate who leads Americans for Tax Reform.
-------
