Red Bull can’t win Australian GP “under normal…

Red Bull is pinning its Australian Grand Prix hopes on Sunday’s forecast rain and Max Verstappen’s proven ability to drag maximum performance out of whatever car he’s driving.

That was the verdict of the team’s long-time ‘driver advisor’, Helmut Marko, after a practice session in which both Red Bull drivers were dogged by handling issues. The RB21 had a troubled pre-season test in Bahrain and seemed little improved on day one in Melbourne, despite a raft of performance upgrades including a new floor.

Verstappen and Liam Lawson were fifth and 16th in first practice, then seventh and 17th in FP2, and Lawson was over half a second slower than his team-mate in both sessions. In turn, Verstappen had a big deficit to the drivers who topped the sessions: four tenths of a second slower than McLaren’s Lando Norris in FP1, and six tenths off Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc in FP2.

Verstappen said the balance of his RB21 “wasn’t completely off”, which is the proverbial damnation of faint praise; a bigger problem was lack of grip which made the car unpredictable and prone to sliding, especially in the first and final sectors of the Albert Park circuit.

“The first practice session was better,” Marko told Sky Sports Germany. “The changes we made afterwards didn’t prove successful. We still have one more session tomorrow, but I estimate we’re about two to three tenths behind and, at best, looking at the second row [of the grid].

“[The car] was fluctuating between understeer and oversteer – which, of course, affects tire wear in the long run. But I believe we know what needs to be done.

“We’re not at the very front but, under normal conditions, a podium finish would be the maximum we can aim for.”

Red Bull even finished below both sister Racing Bulls in second practice, yet Marko put this down to the 'B' team running with less fuel and more engine power. This was done to help rookie Isack Hadjar prepare for qualifying.

“In Bahrain they didn't have time to try that,” said Marko. “So we let him drive with less fuel today.” It means the pace of Racing Bulls was not truly representative and Marko reckons it is still behind the likes of Williams.

Liam Lawson, Red Bull Racing, Helmut Marko, Red Bull Racing (Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images)

New Zealander Lawson has only contested 11 grands prix so far, having stood in for the injured Daniel Ricciardo for five rounds in 2023 and then replaced the popular Australian at the RB team for the final six races of 2024. He has never driven on the Albert Park circuit before, having moved from F2 to Japanese Super Formula in 2023, the year F2 joined the Australian GP support program.

“We’re comparing him with [Mercedes driver Andrea Kimi] Antonelli, who is also driving here for the first time,” said Marko, who was clearly looking in the other direction when Antonelli finished fourth in the F2 feature race here last year.

“The two are more or less on the same pace, despite Lawson not running with full engine power. So, it's okay, but there’s definitely more to come from him.”

McLaren’s clear edge on pace is the chief reason for believing that third place is the best Red Bull can hope for given normal conditions. But unless Red Bull can make its car more driveable overnight, then it’s likely to struggle for both lap time and tire performance – which will affect its strategic options – compared with the likes of Ferrari and Mercedes.

According to the weather forecast, though, ambient temperatures will drop by around 8C on Sunday and rain is expected. In Brazil last year, when rain sparked chaos during the race, Verstappen drove from 17th on the grid to win, making his rivals look rather amateurish.

“It looks like McLaren is the strongest team at the moment, with a close fight between Ferrari, Mercedes, and us,” said Marko. “That battle could be for positions three to five. But I’ve heard there might be rain – and if that happens, the 'Max factor' comes into play again.”

Additional reporting by Christian Nimmervoll