Politicians claim election day is the "only poll that counts" but the results of upcoming state by-elections won't be so easily dismissed.
A clearer picture of Victorian voters' electoral mood will emerge on Saturday when more than 100,000 people cast their ballots for by-elections on opposite sides of Melbourne, in Werribee and Prahran.
It has been a turbulent summer for the state's Liberals and, to a lesser extent, the long-time Labor government.
With parliament returning on Tuesday, Victoria's opposition is trying to turn the page after dumping embattled leader John Pesutto and readmitting his nemesis Moira Deeming to the party room in late 2024.
Mr Pesutto was deposed by his colleagues after the Federal Court found he defamed Mrs Deeming, with Berwick MP Brad Battin elected to replace him.
On the other side of the political aisle, dire polling set tongues wagging at Spring Street after it revealed Labor's primary vote had plummeted to a record low of 22 per cent.
The results of the Resolve poll, conducted across two surveys in early December and mid-January, would be enough to end Labor's three-term reign if replicated at the next state election in November 2026.
Election analyst Ben Raue, of the Tally Room, warned the poll could be an "outlier" but said there had been a clear trend of support swinging against Labor over the course of 2024.
"We've gone from quite good polls for Labor, to tied polls, to Liberals having a narrow lead," he told AAP.
"If there's any truth to it, I think you will see it playing out in Werribee."
The poll indicated the Liberal blood-letting had not made an impression on voters, with support for the coalition rising four points to 42 per cent and Mr Battin leading Jacinta Allan as preferred premier by 10 points.
However, former Liberal strategist turned pollster Tony Barry was cautious of drawing too many conclusions.
"One poll does not a summer make," the RedBridge director told AAP.
"The two by-elections are going to give us a far better indication of the Liberal Party's electability."
It nonetheless raised questions about the direction of state Labor under Ms Allan, who has struggled to cut through in the manner of her predecessor Daniel Andrews.
A Liberal win in Werribee - a Labor stronghold in Melbourne's west which was held by retired treasurer Tim Pallas on a 10.9 per cent margin in 2022 - would send shock waves through Spring Street, Mr Barry said.
But the "real problem" for Ms Allan will be if the Liberals triumph in both by-elections, as it will show they're competitive in both inner and outer suburban markets.
"That will be a massive turning point in this electoral cycle," Mr Barry said.
The Prahran by-election was triggered by the resignation of Sam Hibbins after the former Greens MP admitted to having a consensual relationship with a staffer.
Unlike the red vs blue battle in Werribee, Prahran is shaping as a two-way contest between the Greens and Liberals after Labor opted not to run a candidate.
Both political analysts agree Werribee could be in play, with outer suburban voters hyper focused on cost-of-living pressures, but Mr Raue suspects the Greens will hold Prahran.
"One of the stories of this year might be the Liberals, in general, are doing well but that is not necessarily carrying over to the inner cities," he said.
Mr Battin, a dad, former police officer and ex-Bakers Delight store owner, has not yet articulated a comprehensive alternative vision for Victoria, which will have been under Labor rule for 23 out of 27 years by the 2026 election.
Needing to pick up at least 17 seats to form government, Mr Barry said the new Liberal leader had a "very big mountain to climb" and would not be able to rely on a "we're not Labor" message.
However, the feat is not impossible.
Jeff Kennett won an extra 19 seats to lead the Liberals back to government in 1992 and Steve Bracks steered Labor to a shock win in 1999 by picking up 13 seats.
Mr Raue wasn't so sure the Liberals needed to get their house in order, pointing to federal polling averages that showed the Labor vote had slid most in Victoria since the 2022 election - down 5.2 per cent compared to NSW (2.2 per cent), Queensland (0.4 per cent), WA (1.9 per cent) and SA (2.3 per cent).
"Until recently it looked like Victorian Labor could keep going on forever," he said.
"But they've been in power for a long time, issues rack up, people get frustrated, they look for someone else.
"Sometimes it doesn't really matter that the Victorian Liberals look like a basket case ... somebody's got to win."
