Earlier this summer, I detailed my new method for hand-tracking prospect impact projecting to the NBA level. The college season is finally here and there’s plenty of new data to parse through. Throughout the season, I’ll wrap up notable prospect performances from the day or week.
Let’s discuss some of the best and worst single-game performances from some highly regarded prospects. Many of these are against low-level teams, which should always be considered. Still, we can take away plenty about these prospects as long as we consider the competition level.
For reference, the average single-game impact score for prospects in my database (252 total games) to this point is +8.6. As a reminder, here’s a quick explainer of how the impact score functions, pulled from my initial article linked above:
“What does the impact “score” actually mean? The easiest way for me to conceptualize the scores is as a net total of a player’s positive and negative moments on the court. I’ll think about what a play suggests (or doesn’t suggest) about a player’s ability to translate to the next level in some way. I score plays on a scale from 0-2, with zeros being neutral plays, ones being solid positives and twos being strong positives.“
Cooper Flagg vs Maine: +20
18 points (50% TS), 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 turnovers, 3 steals, 0 blocks
The projected 2025 number-one pick did his thing in his college debut. Flagg stuffed the stat sheet, flexing his basketball muscles on both ends. His defense was stellar as always, mostly pressuring the ball at the point of attack and jumping passing lanes without too many rim protection chances.
Against a smaller Maine team, Flagg scored as he should in the post, winning over both shoulders with spins and jumpers. His ability to drive and dunk in the half-court will only become more deadly as his handle improves. Flagg passed to every spot on the floor, firing all sorts of live dribble passes.
Flagg didn’t make any of his four three-point attempts, but his confidence and spacing awareness off the ball were encouraging. We should take this performance with some caution given the competition level, but Flagg’s two-way impact made it clear why he’ll likely be the number one pick in the 2025 draft.
VJ Edgecombe vs Gonzaga: +1
4 points (18% TS), 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 turnovers, 1 steal, 2 blocks
Edgecombe is the only prospect we’ll discuss today who faced a high-level opponent. He undeniably struggled against Gonzaga, especially on the offensive end. Edgecome couldn’t create advantages off of the dribble, relying fully on his athleticism and acrobatics to score and finish.
Gonzaga defenders pressured Edgecombe’s handle, forcing turnovers and early pickups. Without making any jumpers, defenders could sit on Edgecombe’s drives. He possesses the physical tools to create advantages at a high level but fails to do so in this one.
His defensive flashes keep Edgecombe’s impact score barely in the positive. Despite some lapses and failed gambles, Edgecombe’s weak-side rim protection and turnover generation popped out. Regardless, this will be a debut to build on for Edgecombe and the Bears.
Kon Knueppel vs Maine: +16
22 points (71.3% TS), 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 turnover, 1 steal, 0 blocks
Knueppel thrived as a focal point of Duke’s offensive attack, scoring at all levels efficiently. His high impact score reflects this, as Knueppel showcased his NBA-caliber offensive skillset and defensive prowess. He’ll rip threes off of movement, score with footwork down low and pass off of his gravity.
Again, we’ll note the competition level, but Knueppel’s athleticism fared better than it did during his final EYBL season. Knueppel won easily to the rim with burst on multiple occasions and flew around screens with great agility. He’s been an inconsistent on-ball defender in the past, so Knueppel’s early success there is encouraging.
We will learn if Kneuppel can maintain this kind of impact against better teams. But top prospects should dominate early season opponents and Knueppel did exactly that against Maine.
Asa Newell vs Tennessee Tech: +12
26 points (59% TS), 11 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 turnovers, 1 steal, 3 blocks
Newell ripped apart a weaker Tennessee Tech team on both ends of the floor. Offensively, Newell imposed his size, mobility and vertical pop to snare boards and finish strong. Feel for the game can be nebulous, but Newell clearly knows how to position himself and make quick decisions on the offensive end as a passer, hub initiator and screener.
He’s a savvy defender, weaponizing his mobility and court awareness to rotate on the back line and deter shots. Newell’s deep-range shooting will need to improve (0-4), especially given his shaky pre-NBA sample. If Newell can continue to exploit his mobility advantages against SEC opponents, it’s possible he ends up as a high pick in 2025.
Derik Queen vs Manhattan: +11
22 points (59.9% TS), 20 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 turnover, 1 steal, 2 blocks
Regardless of the opponent, Queen recording a 20-20 in his first college game is a commendable feat. Against a much smaller, less physical team, how much can we expect this to translate to higher levels of competition? That’s what the impact score aims to predict.
Queen tallied plenty of his buckets and boards brute forcing through smaller defenders. That won’t work all of the time, especially against NBA-caliber athletes, but Queen is strong and skilled enough to earn him some benefit of the doubt here.
Some of Queen’s driving flashes showcased impressive coordination and speed with the ball, which will be critical for his NBA upside as handling big. We’ll need to watch for how Queen translates athletically against Big 10 competition, but it’s as impressive a start as you can ask for.
