Nowhere was there a bigger sigh of relief on Tuesday night than at the White House.
Brutal opinion polls for Joe Biden at the weekend had revived murmurs over his viability as the Democratic standard bearer in next year’s presidential election. But then came sweeping victories for Democrats at the ballot box in general elections that offered a reminder of two key Republican liabilities: abortion and democracy.
Reproductive rights supporters won big in an Ohio ballot measure. The Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, was re-elected in Kentucky by campaigning on reproductive rights while his challenger, the state attorney general, Daniel Cameron, touted his endorsement by former president Donald Trump. A Democrat won an open seat on the Pennsylvania supreme court after campaigning on his pledge to uphold abortion rights.
Perhaps the biggest pre-2024 barometer was Virginia, where the Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, who has assailed voting rights, poured tens of millions of dollars into an effort to gain full control of the statehouse and impose a 15-week abortion ban. Instead Democrats secured both chambers, simultaneously killing off rumours of a last-minute Youngkin presidential bid.
If things had gone the other way, the whispering campaign for 80-year-old Biden to step aside would have become a roar. Instead, in the cold light of day, white hair and an unsteady gait look like small offences compared with a messianic mission to end American democracy and reproductive autonomy.
“There is an incredible amount of whiplash over the course of the last 72 hours,” said Ezra Levin, co-founder and co-executive director of the progressive grassroots movement Indivisible. “As of Sunday night, Democrats were destined to lose badly both on Tuesday and also a year from Tuesday. It was written in the stars, foregone conclusion that Biden was going to lead his party to defeat and he would deserve it. Just look at the terrible series of polls that came out.
“I don’t think polls are meaningless but I do think they are given more power than they deserve. What the poll says is right now here is what a group of voters think they will do a year from now. We can take that at face value and believe that is the case and also we should pay attention to the other data that we have coming in, namely the election results that tell us when the choice is given to voters about whether they are going to push the button for the Republicans, for the Maga [Make America great again] supporters, for the anti-abortion zealots or a Democrat or a Democratic proposal like protecting abortion rights, it’s very clear what they choose.”
The outcomes indicate the staying power and potency of abortion as an issue since a conservative majority of the supreme court overturned the federal right to the procedure last year. Abortion rights measures have passed in several states as some other Republican-run states have instituted new bans. Joe Scarborough, a cable news TV host and former Republican congressman, commented on Wednesday: “The overturning of Roe has got to be the most devastating single event for the Republican party since Watergate.”
One man who understands this is Trump himself. Although he likes to remind religious conservatives that his supreme court appointments made the overturning of Roe v Wade possible, he has also used 2024 election campaign speeches to urge pragmatism and warn his base that abortion bans are a vote loser. Trump’s own past, more liberal views on the topic might lend credence to the idea that he would not seek a national ban.
The former president also pushes election denialism less than he used to. His speeches typically dwell briefly on his false claim that the 2020 election was stolen; he devotes far more time to security at the US-Mexico border, which his allies said Republican candidates should have done more to exploit. But his numerous criminal indictments and looming trials will make his anti-democracy extremism millstone hard to escape.
Indeed, the evidence of the past seven years is that, with Trump at the head of the party, Republicans repeatedly lose or underperform expectations. Chris Christie, who is challenging Trump for the nomination, cited Tuesday’s result in deep-red Kentucky. “Cameron was a rising star in the Republican party until he decided to throw his lot in with Donald Trump,” he told CNN. “Let’s face it, Donald Trump is political and electoral poison down ballot.”
The Trump effect may have damaged Republicans in Virginia. The results may also indicate the limitations of the “parents’ rights” movement seen as pivotal to Youngkin’s election as governor two years ago. The movement arose from grievance over schools’ handling of the coronavirus pandemic, including long closures and mask mandates, all of which may have faded from memory. It then morphed into divides around instruction of hot-button topics related to race, sexual orientation and gender identity, with flashpoints over book bans and school bathrooms.
But just as the “war on woke” pushed by the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, has a hit a ceiling in the Republican primary, Republicans appear to have run out of road in Virginia. Democrats held the state senate and flipped control of the house of delegates. Among the winners was Danica Roem, who became the first transgender person elected to Virginia’s state senate after a campaign that emphasised practical concerns such as fixing roads and feeding kids. Liberals won a majority on the school board in Loudoun county, which had become a frontline in the culture wars.
Levin of Indivisible commented: “It turns out voters actually like teachers. It turns out voters actually like their schools. It turns out voters don’t actually want to pick vicious fights with trans kids. It just doesn’t work for them. Now, I would like the Republicans to drop those attacks because they do quite a bit of harm, even though they lose elections.”
All of it is good news for Biden, who has shown a Houdini-like ability to escape the doubters and bounce back just in the nick of time. Still, his name was not on the ballot and the polls offer some nagging doubts about whether Democrats’ down-ballot success will translate to the president, who faces widespread scepticism about his job performance and internal dissent over his staunch embrace of Israel.
Cenk Uygur, a political commentator and media host who has launched a long-shot primary campaign against Biden, wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter: “Last night showed that Democratic policies are strong everywhere, from Ohio to Kentucky. Yet the leading Democratic nominee for president is trailing the most unpopular politician of all time by five points. Biden never makes the Democratic case. Extraordinarily weak candidate.”
Others, however, contend that Tuesday was a blue wave and now is not the time to change the captain of a winning team. Jim Messina, a Democratic strategist, tweeted: “What if – and just hear me out for a second – the Democratic brand *and* Joe Biden have policies people actually like? And the way people voted last night is a reflection of both those things?”
