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Manchester City are 90 minutes away from a second successive Champions League final but their slender one-goal advantage from a pulsating first leg at the Etihad means that there remains some jeopardy in this tie.
How much jeopardy largely revolves around who scores first in Madrid because if the visitors can strike an early blow then the La Liga champions have a mountain to climb.
City are red-hot 1/4 shots to qualify for the final in Paris but a much more appealing 11/10 with Betfred to win at the Bernabeu, while the hosts, who sealed a 35th domestic title at the weekend, are 9/4 to come out on top in the 90 minutes.
Kevin De Bruyne headed City in front only 94 seconds into the first leg – the fastest goal in a UEFA Champions League semi-final – and Madrid quickly conceded again, to Gabriel Jesus in the 11th minute – the earliest they had let in two goals in a European match.
Karim Benzema halved the deficit in the 33rd minute, however, and, though Phil Foden headed City's third eight minutes after half-time, Vinícius Júnior promptly skipped through to keep Madrid in touch. Bernardo Silva's 74th-minute strike gave City a two-goal cushion for the third time but Madrid wouldn't be shaken off and Benzema pulled another back from the spot eight minutes from time.
That equalled the most goals in a UEFA Champions League semi-final game, matching the seven of Ajax's 5-2home win against Bayern München in the 1994/95 second leg and Liverpool's defeat of Roma by the same scoreline in the 2017/18 first leg.
City continued their march towards another Premier League title with a routine 4-0 win at Leeds on Saturday evening and Pep Guardiola's side head to Spain in terrific shape for an assault on the one major prize that has so far proved elusive.
Real Madrid vs Man City prediction
The layers are expecting goals in the Bernabeu - it's as short as 4/9 that both teams score and it's 1/2 that these two sides serve up at least three goals between them. Whether we'll get the humdinger of a clash like the Etihad encounter is another matter entirely but Carlo Ancelotti's side have already turned around one first-leg deficit in this season's Champions League and they will fancy their chances of another.
However, City are a bit shrewder than PSG and the way they withstood pressure from Atletico Madrid in the second leg of their quarter-finals strongly suggest that they will be a much tougher nut for Real Madrid to crack.
Don't expect Pep Guardiola's stars to settle for what they have and an early push could put the visitors out of sight. City look decent value to win the game at 11/10.
Recommended bet: Man City to win in 90 minutes @ 11/10 with Betfred
Real Madrid vs Man City odds with Betfred
- Real Madrid - 9/4
- Draw - 3/1
- Man City - 11/10
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