Liverpool have needed a little bit of luck in the Champions League over the years. Their 2005 triumph in Istanbul provided enough evidence to suggest that football doesn't always make sense.
Sometimes matches follow the course of logic but often, unexplainable results happen, and Real Madrid know all about that. They advanced to this year's final earlier in the month by scoring three goals in six minutes against Manchester City.
Two of their goals came after the 90th minute in normal time, before Karim Benzema scored a penalty in extra-time to win the contest. The Spanish champions will now face Liverpool in Paris this weekend.
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Luck can't always be explained in football but over the years, the emergence of Expected Goals (xG) as a metric has allowed certain elements to be better understood, specifically finishing.
Madrid got outplayed for the large majority of their tie against Pep Guardiola's men. They also struggled for control for large periods against Paris Saint-Germain, while appearing defeated against Chelsea before somehow sparking an impressive comeback.
Much of Madrid's success in the tournament this season can be attributed to experience, mentality, moments and history, but they have also profited from clinical finishing and that can be highlighted using xG.
In the knockout stages of the competition this season, Carlo Ancelotti's men have generated shots worth around 7.8 goals according to xG - excluding penalties - meaning if they had converted their shots into goals at a normal level, they would have scored about seven or eight times in total.
In reality, Madrid have found the net 14 times. 14 goals from 7.8 xG captures how the Spanish outfit have performed to an above average level when it comes to finishing their chances, with Benzema in particular having a big influence.
On the defensive side of the game, Madrid have allowed their opponents to generate shots worth around 10.4 xG and they have conceded 11 goals, which suggests that everything has been roughly in line with expectation.
Simply put, Madrid have experienced a hot streak in front of goal during the knockout stages by scoring far more than expected. Their opponents, on the other hand, have converted their shots to a fairly average standard.
The numbers associated with Madrid's finishing matter because teams don't tend to overperform xG forever. Over time, finishing tends to revert back to normal. Luck runs out.
It remains to be seen as to whether Ancelotti's side will be as clinical against Alisson Becker at the Stade de France, but their underlying performances ultimately suggest they are relatively lucky to be contesting the final.
Their 7.8 xG is eclipsed by the 10.4 generated by their opponents. If their knockout ties were to be replayed 100 times, it is reasonable to suggest they would get beat more often than not based on what they managed to create in comparison to the opposition.
Unlike Liverpool, Madrid haven't dominated the teams they have faced by forging better opportunities to score while affording little at the opposite end. Instead, they have advanced to the final stage by showcasing elite finishing and moments of chaos.
The Reds haven't relied upon the same degree of good fortune to reach Paris. They have posted better numbers in attack and defence than all of their opponents, and Jurgen Klopp will hope that continues this Saturday.
