The curtain is on the point of falling on a truly remarkable season for Remco Evenepoel, with a stage triumph and podium finish in his first Tour de France, two Olympic gold medals and a repeat of his World Championships Time Trial title as the highest of many highlights.
But when it comes to Il Lombardia and the Soudal-QuickStep leader's final race of his landmark, but rollercoaster, 2024? As weariness from a year which has also included a tough crash and injuries this April, nobody is really sure, to the point where, as Evenepoel told reporters on Friday afternoon, even getting through to the finish of Il Lombardia at Como would in some ways constitute a success.
Not only is Evenepoel's form unpredictable but what kind of result is achievable is even more uncertain given he is facing – like every other contender bar one in Il Lombardia – a standout favourite of the calibre of three-times former winner Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates).
On the plus side, Evenepoel says he has no sense of foreboding about the moment when he and the peloton will pass the Colma di Sormano, the scene of his terrible accident back in 2020, this Saturday. It likely helps that this year's race is heading in the opposite direction to four years, uphill rather than downhill. Arguably even more importantly, though, the Belgian explained after going to see the site of his crash back in 2021, he has already worked through any ghosts of the past.
A much more recent high-profile race accident with a considerably more tragic outcome, that of Muriel Furrer in the World Championships junior women's road race two weeks ago, was also the subject of an open question regarding rider safety in Evenepoel's press conference.
Evenepoel quietly pointed out in his answer that "it's not up to me to say things like - we have to change this or that. " But he also put his finger on one key issue of the harrowing events of September 26 in Zurich – that 'the main problem was nobody knew about the crash."
And even if he did not want to take a specific stance, the Belgian nonetheless argued cogently and powerfully that this absence of information being provided quickly could well strengthen the case for in-race radios for riders, in at least some events.
"Of course, what happened in Zurich was a racing accident and the only thing I would say is if there were riders with radio communication, you could communicate it [the accident] to the car and the car could communicate with the jury [race commissaires]," he began by saying. "Then at least the ambulance could have come way quicker.
"So that's maybe a reason why radio communication should be allowed in international championships – the Worlds, Europeans, Olympics... Because I think in this case that was the main problem in Zurich, that nobody knew about the crash.
"There were riders around. But of course, if you see somebody crash, you would always think 'ok, the person is just going to stand up and continue the race'.
"Like I said, if there were no [TV] images and nobody saw it from the cars and the riders could not say anything, then I think that [absence of information] was the biggest problem in this case.
"But of course, it's not up to me to say things like - we have to change this or that. I think we have already said quite a lot also last year with Gino [Mäder, who died in a crash in the 2023 Tour de Suisse - Ed.] with a downhill finish, with no protection on the side of the road to stop him going into a ravine.
"I think what I just mentioned now is the second big thing. That at least when you see it happening, you can communicate it to the car and they can communicate it to the jury and actions can be taken."
Return to the Colma di Sormano
To say that Evenepoel knows of the fortune he had personally in such circumstances was true about his own major crash in Il Lombardia 2020. TV images showed him spinning over a low-lying stone wall on a bridge on the descent of the Colma di Sormano, and after he was found within a question of minutes, the rescue services could begin their work to save him much more quickly.
"I've got over that moment," he said when asked if the crash was still a bad memory or if he had got over it.
"I visited the place last year after the race and I think that was a good decision to just have a moment there, for myself and with [partner] Oumi, looking at the point where everything happened, trying to analyse what I did wrong.
"I think that helped me a lot, with having a bit less fear on the roads round here. and just in general."
It was a good decision for this year's Il Lombardia to go up the Sormano and not down, he said, given how so many other riders have crashed there in the past, but he insisted that "I'm completely over that moment. It probably only made me mature and helped me in a lot of ways to accept things a bit more easily than I did before."
"It doesn't mean anything special to me and I've achieved some great things since then. I could pass the bridge on a golden bike" – painted in that colour in recognition of his recently gained status as Olympic champion – "and that says enough."
This year's race
With that episode firmly in the past, Evenepoel is obviously ready to focus on the race itself. Having done one recon of the Il Lombardia route – changed, yet again, in 2024 – Evenepoel says he knows most of the finale, but that in any case, the question mark remains over his underlying condition.
Given the Colma di Sormano – the second last climb in the 2024 race is 13km long, "It's a very demanding final," Evenepoel reasoned "But then it's a bit strange with the long flat part we have to the [last climb] of San Fermo della Battaglia."
"It's special to go up a long climb on the last race of the season, asking for a lot of energy. But then, on the other hand, I hope to reach Como, which would already be a successful achievement for me this year. So it's a very nice course."
The crunch issue for Evenepoel, then, is how far he is wavering away from his top form and whether he can yet produce a major performance as a result. On the plus side, unlike other top names like Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) this week who have already opted to pull down the blinds on their 2024 season, the fact that he is taking part in Il Lombardia says there is room for some optimism.
However, as Evenepoel explained, through no fault of his own his season has been a very irregular one thanks to the crash and broken collarbone in Itzulia-Basque Country this spring. So going into Il Lombardia his default position right now is to hedge his bets and see what happens out on the road.
"I think if you have a healthy year with no problems, then everything is possible to keep in top shape. I proved that in 2022 when I was at a very high level from June to the last week of the season," he said.
"But this year I was in a rush after Basque to get into shape for the month of July and I'm just paying for that a bit right now. it's a bit more of a struggle to keep the good shape."
"So it's just about getting through and seeing what the result will be. Like I said, with the injury before the Tour and then getting sick after the Olympics, it wasn't the best preparation for the Worlds and these races.
"I'm still good enough to perform. If this is for the win or not, that's something I cannot tell for the moment."
As for how he sees the 2024 Race of the Falling Leaves playing out, Evenepoel believes four early classified climbs will make the first part of this edition of Lombardia is so much harder than the last 100km. As a result, the first consequence is a big fight for a strong breakaway will be almost inevitable.
But the second consequence of the hard start is likely the one that interests a top contender like Evenepoel the most. Keeping the legs fresh for the final part of the race after such a tough early challenge, he said will likely be key to success in a race as unpredictable as Il Lombardia and with the doubts around his current form, even more so.
Planning for 2025
Although this is the last Monument of the season, this is Evenepoel's first of the year, given he had to skip Liège-Bastogne-Liège because of his Itzulia injuries. It's hardly surprising then, that after a dearth of participation in one-day racing already interest is mounting regarding his 2025 plans for the Classics.
The Belgian was happy to use his final pre-race press conference of 2024 to discuss his initial ideas for next Spring. But it was more to deliver a first round of damping down any home expectations that he'll be making his keenly awaited debut in the Tour of Flanders, rather than to provide any bombshell news about De Ronde.
"For next year we'll have to see;" he said. "Probably the Flemish Classics are a bit difficult in this program for my bigger goals and the things I really want to achieve - let's not say as fast as possible but pretty soon."
"If there is a Classic that maybe can be done in 2025, it's going to be San Remo. It'll be difficult to do the other Classics next Spring – except for the Ardennes of course. But the Flemish ones and San Remo – there's a bigger chance I'll be not doing them than doing them."
Where Evenepoel will definitely be lining up, though, of course, will be in Il Lombardia on Saturday, for what is his fourth participation in five editions and with a hope of improving on his career-best placing of ninth last year.
Yet come what may on the roads of northern Italy this weekend, after a season like the Belgian's, anything he achieves in his first and final Monument of 2024 can only be considered a bonus.
