Manchester City are second-favourites to win the Champions League this season ahead of their knockout clash with RB Leipzig, according to a supercomputer.
Pep Guardiola's side comfortably topped Group G ahead of Borussia Dortmund, Sevilla and Copenhagen to set up a two-legged tie against familiar foes from last season's group stage. Those two matches less than 18 months ago both ended in a win for the home side, with City winning 6-3 in Manchester before losing 2-1 on the continent when top spot was already guaranteed.
Following that defeat in the final group stage game last term, City know they'll need to be at their best on Wednesday. And the latest data-driven predictions from FiveThirtyEight ahead of the tie claim Guardiola's men should have enough to progress to the next round.
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City are given a 44% chance of beating Leipzig tonight, with the hosts rated at 32% to win the last 16 first leg. The draw is rated at a 24% likelihood.
City are given a 69% chance of advancing to the quarter-finals, a percentage only bettered by Bayern Munich and Benfica (who already hold a first-leg lead from their fixtures last week), as well as Napoli (who face Eintracht Frankfurt, also on Wednesday). From there, Guardiola's men are given an almost 50/50 chance (48%) of reaching the semi-finals for a third successive season, which is only bettered by Bayern (59%).
The club are also being given a 33% chance of going one better than last year and returning to the final for the second time in three seasons; again, only the German champions have a higher chance. Ahead of this year's final, which is due to be held at the Atatürk Olympic Stadium in İstanbul, City are second-favourites to win the Champions League for the first time with a 20% chance, just behind Bayern (24%).
Despite the Bavarian side being favoured over City, at this stage, it is Guardiola's side who are rated as the better team. City are deemed the strongest side to have participated in this season's competition, with the best defence and third-best attack (behind Bayern, again, and Ajax, who are now playing in the Europa League).
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