Orange juice prices are expected to rise further in the US after a bacterial disease and extreme weather intensified by global heating ravaged this season’s crop of the citrus fruit.
Last year Florida, which produces more than 90% of the US’s orange juice supply, was hit by Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Nicole and freezing conditions in quick succession, devastating orange producers in the Sunshine State.
Producers also battled an incurable citrus greening disease that is spread by an invasive insect, rendering fruit unusable. Most infected trees die within a few years, and some producers told the Financial Times they were giving up farming and selling their land.
Industry figures said US orange production would reach its lowest level for more than a century.
And futures prices for frozen concentrated orange juice on the Intercontinental Exchange, the global benchmark which is strongly linked to production in Florida, have roughly doubled in the last year to more than $3 a pound and could rise further, prompting warnings that prices are set to surge further on the shelves.
Matt Joyner, chief executive of Florida Citrus Mutual, a grower trade association, said: “At its height, our industry was doing about 244m boxes of oranges. This season we ended up with just under 16m boxes.
“You can see that is a very dramatic decline as a result of this disease and multiple weather events that really hammered our industry. Supply and demand dictates that with such a reduced crop, there will be upwards pressure on prices.”
Joyner told the Guardian that about 10% of Florida’s orange trees were lost in last year’s hurricanes. Hurricane Ian, one of the worst storms in US history, was worsened by the climate crisis, according to scientific analysis. The storm hit 152,000 hectares (375,000 acres) of citrus groves in Florida – nearly all of the 162,000 hectares of groves – causing $675m in damages, according to Florida Citrus Mutual’s assessment of the 2022-23 season published last month.
Joyner said: “You would like to think there’s more than can be done to prepare for hurricanes and massive flooding events but there’s really little we can do, from a production standpoint, to combat Mother Nature.”
Jack Scoville, a broker at Chicago-based Price Futures Group, said the environmental impact on orange production would filter through to retailers in the coming months, likely raising prices even further. He said the climate crisis was having an increasing impact on orange production around the world.
“I am not going to blame the situation in Florida exclusively [on climate change] but there is that factor,” he said. “In Brazil, the number one exporter of oranges and orange juice, they are experiencing heat right now that’s being blamed on climate change. When you look at orange production in other states of the US like California and Texas, they are both states that have been extremely hot.
“You look at Europe. Spain and Italy are both pretty big producers of oranges. Some Asian countries are pretty big producers, too. Climate change definitely has a part to play in this.”
Spain, Portugal, France and Italy are all taking measures to stop the spread of the bacteria Candidatus liberibacter that causes citrus greening, also known as yellow dragon disease.
The impact of extreme weather on food production is one of the major risks of global heating, with coffee, olives and rice among some of the crops affected.
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